Heading into IndyCar’s 2021 season finale from the streets of Long Beach, there are three drivers mathematically able to take home the Astor Cup.
The odds are heavily favored towards Alex Palou taking his first championship, but Pato O’Ward and Josef Newgarden are still able to win the title if the current leader has a bad weekend.
Since there are many different scenarios that could play out owing to IndyCar’s points system that has a few bonus point possibilities, the situation becomes easier to understand if we look at what it will take for the drivers currently in second and third in the standings to jump into the top spot.
How Pato O’Ward can win the title
O’Ward currently sits in second place in the championship, 35 points behind Palou, and has the best chance of upending the current order. The young Arrow McLaren SP driver has been near the top of the points standings all season, and even led the standings as recently as Gateway, but has lost ground in the critical final stretch.
If O’Ward makes a resurgence and takes pole, leads the most laps, and wins the finale from Long Beach, he will claim the maximum possible 54 points. That means that should Palou finishe outside the top 11 without leading a lap, he will lose out on the title. If Palou manages to lead a lap, then he can finish 12th and still win the title by equaling O’Ward’s points and winning the tie-breaker.
If O’Ward wins without any additional bonus points, he will only gain 51 points. This makes it a bit tougher, and he will only clinch the title if Palou finishes 15th or lower. If Palou happens to get bonus points for leading a lap or earning pole, then he would have to finish in 16th (or 17th if he gets both bonus points) in order for O’Ward to win the championship.
If the young Mexican driver does not win the race, his chances of being crowned champion fall drastically. Finishing second in the race would earn him between 40 and 44 points depending on bonus awards. If O’Ward gets all the bonus points available to him, he would only win the title if Palou ends the day 22nd or worse. If he leads a lap or gets pole to earn a total of 41 points, then his Chip Ganassi Racing rival would have to finish in the final four positions in order to not retain his lead.
If O’Ward finishes second and does not earn any bonus points, then he would not be able to win the title because Palou would earn enough points to keep his lead just by starting the race. The same applies if O’Ward finishes anywhere other than the top two positions, as he would have no chance of regaining the top spot.
The reality for the third-year driver is that if he doesn’t win on Sunday, his chances are virtually nonexistent of earning his first IndyCar championship. And if he finishes outside the top two, he has no path to the title.
How Josef Newgarden can win the title
Newgarden currently sits in third place in the championship, a full 48 points behind Palou and 13 points behind O’Ward. The veteran among the front-runners, the two-time champion has the most difficult path to the Astor Cup.
If Newgarden takes the maximum possible haul of 54 points, then he would need Palou to finish in 24th or lower in order to take an unlikely third championship. If Palou also manages to lead a lap, then Newgarden can afford to lose one less point, and would only claim the title if Palou finished 25th or worse.
If Newgarden wins and only earns three bonus points instead of four, then Palou would have to finish right at the back of the field in order to lose his top spot. In addition, O’Ward could snatch the title away by finishing second with a couple bonus points of his own.
Anything less than 53 points makes it impossible for the two-time champion to reprise his role, and ensures that a new champion is crowned.
For Newgarden then, he needs to dominate the entire weekend in Long Beach just to have an outside chance of winning the title. Even then, he would need a lot of help to take home the Astor Cup.
Any other scenario, Alex Palou wins
For Palou, every scenario aside from the ones described above results in him taking his maiden championship. And the odds are certainly in his favor.
If Palou finishes in the top 11 positions, then there is nothing anybody else can do to move him from the top of the standings. For context, the sophomore driver has finished that high in the order 11 times out of the 15 races run so far.
Even if he does not finish in the top half of the field, it would take outstanding weekends on the part of his closest rivals in order for them to successfully upend the standings.
Juan Pablo Montoya lost the title 2015 by giving up a similarly-sized lead to Scott Dixon, who won the race and claimed his fourth title. But in that year, IndyCar awarded final points in the final round to aid in the unlikely comeback. Starting in 2020, only the Indianapolis 500 has awarded double points, which makes it harder for such upsets to be repeated.
This weekend will likely see Palou minimizing his risks at every turn, and simply looking to bring his Chip Ganassi Racing Honda home with a reasonable result. Nothing is certain, however, and one of the unlikely scenarios may yet play out.
The Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach takes place this Sunday at 3:00 PM Eastern Time.
