Valtteri Bottas says he only has to blame if he misses out on the Formula 1 title to Mercedes team-mate Lewis Hamilton.
Bottas won two of the opening four events to ensure he headed to the start of the European campaign in front of the reigning World Champion in the standings.
But from Spain through Russia Hamilton claimed seven wins, with Bottas failing to reach the top step of the podium, as the gap between the pair widened to 73 points.
Bottas brought to an end a 12-race win-less streak at last week’s Japanese Grand Prix, dominating proceedings after rising from third at the start, while Hamilton finished on the bottom step of the podium.
It reduced Hamilton’s advantage to 64 points, albeit with only 104 up for grabs across the remaining grands prix in Mexico, the United States, Brazil and Abu Dhabi.
“I don’t really give up on anything as long as there’s a theoretical chance,” said Bottas.
“Japan was a good example… on the track where it’s difficult to overtake. You start third, OK, two Ferraris ahead, it’s a difficult case to win but it’s possible.
“Everything’s possible although I’m realistic as well that I will need to be very lucky, that’s a fact, to win all the rest of the races but yeah, I don’t really think about that much at this point.
“It is my bad, mostly, that I’ve been behind this much in the points compared to Lewis.
“It’s my fault which I try to fix for the future but it is where we are now and just take it now race by race and see how it goes.”
Analysis: Three events that hampered Bottas’ title bid
So far this season Hamilton has finished, or scored more, than Bottas at 12 of the 17 grands prix, and has been the faster qualifier 11 times, underlining that he has again had the measure of his team-mate.
But three events this season have severely dented Bottas’ prospects.
In Monaco the Mercedes drivers were closely matched in qualifying, with Bottas ahead after the first Q3 runs. But Hamilton found more pace when it mattered and inched his team-mate by just 0.086s. A scruffy final lap was to blame for Bottas. In race trim Hamilton won while Bottas was third after a pit lane clash with Max Verstappen. It is not unreasonable to suspect that had Bottas taken pole he would have won, while Hamilton would have been the victim of the pit clash. That would have been a net 20-point swing.
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In Germany Mercedes ran 1-2 before its race unravelled in spectacular fashion as early leader Hamilton made a rare mistake, running wide and dropping down the order. It presented Bottas with a golden opportunity to profit from his team-mate’s demise but while running fourth he crashed out at Turn 1. Given that two of the three drivers in front were Daniil Kvyat and Lance Stroll Bottas could reasonably have been expected to move back into second. That would have led to an 18-point gain, but instead Hamilton’s ninth place meant he added two more to his collection.
A week later in Hungary Bottas out-qualified Hamilton but locked up into Turn 1, with Hamilton executing a sublime move around Turn 2. Hamilton went on to win the race, while Bottas was only eighth after contact with Charles Leclerc a few seconds after Hamilton’s pass. Bottas should have been a minimum third, given Ferrari’s lacklustre pace that weekend. 11 points went begging.
Bottas would have been behind even had he avoided the mistakes at those three events and we are of course delving into the realms of the hypothetical. The future is shaped by the past and the present, meaning other events would have played out in a different manner. But those three events, and marginal differences, could be the difference between being 14 or 64 points behind…
