Esteban Ocon looks set to miss out on a race seat for the 2019 Formula 1 season, which comes as a shame for the young Frenchman and for spectators, given the level of talent he has displayed in his two years with Force India and part-season at Manor.
Missing out on a seat, however, may not be the terrible setback that some believe.
There is, of course, still hope that Ocon could muscle his way into the vacant Williams seat and link up with fellow Mercedes protégé George Russell.
But if that fails to come off then there are positives to be taken from the negatives.
It has been proven before that drivers have come back from sabbaticals; the speed and talent do not go away. If anything, those drivers that have been benched come back stronger and better than before.
Ocon may rather be racing but if he does spend 2019 on the sidelines then he will gain a new learning experience and potentially be handed a bigger opportunity to return to the grid.
Staying within the Mercedes Family
Ocon is poised to relinquish his Force India seat to Lance Stroll and, while the team has been open in accommodating him in a third driver role, that’s exactly the sort of valuable position he could occupy within the Mercedes camp.
A reserve and test driver role may be regarded as a step down in the eyes of many (and given F1’s tight on-track testing regulations in the modern era it is hardly a help), but it could be viewed as a side-step, given Ocon’s current position in his (hoped) career trajectory.
With Russell heading to Williams, and Pascal Wehrlein having left, there is a vacancy within the house of the Silver Arrows for Ocon to fill. Mercedes will need someone who can be relied upon in the simulator to undertake and analyse vital set-up work and provide the required feedback in engineering meetings. His experience would be influential in how Mercedes can develop.
Becoming entrenched within Mercedes would leave him in the forefront of being a contender for a 2020 race seat – perhaps even with the senior team. Toto Wolff has long been a staunch advocate of Ocon’s ability, telling Sky Sports in September that “not in a million years” would he release Ocon, as “one day he’s going to be in a Mercedes and win races and championships, and show all the others out there they made a mistake.”
It's been done before
Missing out a season is certainly not a new thing in F1; many drivers have taken one or more years out of the sport, returned and even achieved more success with a return – albeit that's normally an exception rather than a rule.
Niki Lauda retired for the first time during the 1979 season with Brabham after just falling out of love with driving at the time; hardly surprising after just two finishes in 13 races that year. He returned in 1982 with McLaren and went to win the 1984 championship against team-mate Alain Prost.
Fernando Alonso spent his first season in Formula 1 with the Minardi team and performed some great feats in a woefully underperforming car, long-time manager Flavio Briatore brought the Spaniard to the Renault team in 2002 as a test driver and was subsequently promoted to a race seat in 2003, during which season he took his maiden win, going on to take the title two years later.
Felipe Massa is another case study – he followed a wild-but-promising 2002 season with Sauber by spending 2003 as Ferrari’s test driver; he came back in 2004, joined Ferrari in 2006, and came two corners away from the title in 2008.
Another name to throw in the mix is Nico Hulkenberg. He missed out on a drive for 2011 after getting ousted from Williams at the end of his rookie campaign, in which he showed promise, the highlight being a shock pole position in mixed weather at Interlagos.
Performing well in his test role at Force India brought him to a race seat alongside Paul di Resta for 2012, he moved to Sauber in 2013 and then came back to Force India until the opportunity came to move to Renault for 2017. In 2019, Hulkenberg will partner the man who unofficially stole the seat away from Ocon– Daniel Ricciardo – after there was a 'handshake' deal on the table to place the Frenchman at the team.
Time to grow
At just a tender age of 22, Ocon has time on his side to continue gathering knowledge and improving his skill set.
Should a deal with Williams to partner fellow Mercedes junior Russell fail to materialise, taking the time out is not a tragic situation as he is in the embracing arms of the Silver Arrows who refuse to let him go.
Wolff has said: “We are prepared for ‘Plan B’ with Esteban, one thing I can guarantee for you is he’s going to be in a good car in 2020 because there are many teams out there that have an interest in Esteban.
“We will try to facilitate [things] where we can but there’s nothing I could say ‘this is going to help him into the car’.”
Ocon is an amiable and polite youngster but there will be a fierce determination to prove behind-the-scenes that he should be regarded as a contender for the seat currently occupied by Valtteri Bottas.
Should he do so, he could be in a position to rekindle his rivalry with Max Verstappen from their early days in karting, through to Formula 3 and bring that battle to the forefront of Formula 1.
