Formula 1 is preparing to wrap up an intriguing and unpredictable season, with the Constructors’ Championship battle just the tip of the iceberg of the stakes to be decided at the season finale at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
The Yas Marina Circuit has a chequered history of providing action despite its long-standing slot as the season finale but has settled numerous championships since its first F1 race in 2009.
Yet another will be decided in 2024, and with the unpredictability of competitiveness across the top teams, extracting the maximum performance from the car will be critical to gain even the slightest advantage.
Multiple teams and drivers have high-stakes deciders in Abu Dhabi, with millions of dollars available to be won or lost in an instant, and perfect performances are needed from all to secure the best result.
McLaren vs Ferrari: The decider
Not since 2008 have the two former titans of F1 headed into the season finale battling for the Constructors’ Championship. Massive prize money and prestige are on offer and now within agonising reach.
Ferrari held an eight-point advantage that year going into the final round but must make up a 21-point deficit to its rival in 2024, requiring absolute perfection to seal its first title since 2008. McLaren’s drought goes back further. Not since 1998 has the Constructors’ Championship trophy resided in Woking, a statistic that has hurt long-time McLaren team members who still remember the glory days.
The question of who will emerge victorious is exceptionally tricky to predict. Both teams have been equally matched in the final few races, demonstrated by Oscar Piastri and Charles Leclerc in Qatar. Ferrari ultimately won the duel as McLaren threw away precious points.
Ferrari and McLaren have a history of strong performances at Yas Marina, although Ferrari has had a better record in recent years. Charles Leclerc finished second last season, a feat he will want to repeat, while McLaren has struggled to reach the top five but won back in 2012 with Jenson Button.
Ferrari’s 21-point gap to McLaren requires Leclerc and Carlos Sainz to dig deep for the Scuderia to deliver. Piastri and Norris must ensure they finish ahead of both red cars while avoiding any avoidable entanglements on track.
Watching these two powerhouses of F1 duel once again for ultimate glory will be fascinating. The tension is likely to be felt from the media day on Thursday. Only perfection will deliver the title. No matter who wins, the celebrations at dethroning Red Bull will go long into the night.
FIA and Race Control under scrutiny
The increasing backlash after Race Control failed to deploy a Virtual Safety Car following Alex Albon’s mirror detaching from his Williams shows no sign of abating. Instead, it threatens to continue in Abu Dhabi as scrutiny over decision-making once again comes under the microscope.
The stewards were correct in all of their decisions in Qatar, but these took far too long. Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz had their races ruined when they ran over the debris and punctured their tyres, forcing race control to act – far too late.
In Abu Dhabi, however, a title decider is on the line. This is not a race where the farce of Qatar can happen again, a factor that will not be lost on the FIA, particularly after a somewhat controversial race at the last finale title decider in 2021. A smooth and competent race is needed from the FIA in this race for a multitude of reasons.
If McLaren and Ferrari find themselves on the wrong side of the stewards or Race Control, the decision needs to be made quickly and efficiently so no debate breaks out. Although rules on contacting Race Control have tightened up in recent years, both teams will not hesitate to radio if they feel wronged.
The FIA will want to avoid the Constructors’ Championship being decided in the steward’s office at all costs. Not only does this detract from the racing, but it will add to the heat surrounding decision-making by officials.
Lando vs Charles: The battle for second in the championship
Just eight points separates Norris and Leclerc ahead of the season finale, setting up an enthralling race under the lights. Both drivers are tied on three wins apiece in 2024, and either could realistically take victory in Yas Marina.
Norris has the better qualifying record in recent races but struggles to hold the lead into the first corner, or indeed, at the end of the first lap. Concerns continue to circulate over Norris’ ability to sustain pressure or race in heated combat, and with the runner-up spot in the standings available for the taking, the British driver will aim to silence his critics.
He has the potential to be unbeatable on his day, and his imperious performance in Zandvoort proves that. But again, he had to retake the lead, having lost the lead to Verstappen at the start of the race. Singapore, although similarly dominant, masked multiple near misses with the barrier.
Leclerc has proven his consistency in the second half of the season, pulling off spectacular overtakes, but still missing the finesse that can transform him into a World Champion. Crashes were his Achilles heel a few years ago, but these have been ironed out for the most part, barring his Baku practice crash.
2024 has been a vast improvement on his dire 2022 championship bid, with fewer mistakes. His form in recent races has been stellar, but his temper can sometimes get the better of him in races. His fiery radio exchanges in multiple races, including in Las Vegas, will not help him this weekend.
Abu Dhabi will test Leclerc and Norris’s skills and mental strength as they seek to be runner-up to Max Verstappen in the standings and win the Constructors’ Championship for their team.
Farewells, goodbyes and a new face
The Abu Dhabi GP sees several drivers racing for the final time for their current teams or preparing to leave the grid altogether. These drivers will want to go out on a high and give something back to the mechanics who have worked tirelessly for them over a number of years.
Esteban Ocon is not in this group following his sacking by Alpine in the wake of a disastrous Qatar GP. Instead, he will be eagerly awaiting the test post-race, while his replacement, Jack Doohan, will be introduced to the grid and will seek to use the grand prix as a learning experience for 2025.
For others, the weekend will have a different feel. Lewis Hamilton will aim for a better result in Yas Marina, following a concerning dip in form, as he prepares to switch to Ferrari from Mercedes. Having almost parked the car in Qatar, the seven-time World Champion will want a competitive outing to see out his highly successful ten seasons at the Silver Arrows. Nico Hulkenberg will also want a good performance before he leaves for Sauber.
At the other end of the grid, Valtteri Bottas, Zhou Guanyu, and Kevin Magnussen are bidding a final goodbye to the grid, all having lost their race seats for 2025. The former two potentially may have new roles lined up in a testing capacity, but Magnussen looks set to bid farewell to the grid entirely. All will want to go out in style, and Magnussen’s trademark aggression should make for interesting viewing.
Franco Colapinto will be out to prove a point after a challenging run of form. He is rumoured to have a place on the grid next season if he can showcase the credentials from earlier in the second half of the year.
The battle for sixth in the championship
The battle for Constructors’ Championship glory in Abu Dhabi is not isolated to the front of the grid. Three teams have a chance of securing sixth in the standings when the chequered flag falls, with tens of millions of dollars at stake.
Alpine currently hold the position, five points ahead of Haas. The Enstone-based team has transformed since its US GP upgrade, fielding a far more competitive car, particularly in the hands of Pierre Gasly. But with a new driver making their debut, they have the most to lose this weekend.
Haas has enjoyed a vastly improved season following its finish at the bottom of last year’s standings. A solid midfield team, the outfit has struggled to get both Kevin Magnussen and Nico Hulkenberg into the points simultaneously. One driver has scored a significant haul on the occasional weekend, but rarely together. Both drivers will need to score to have any chance of overhauling Alpine.
RB are the outlier in the battle, with a disastrous Qatar GP increasing the gap to 13 points. While mathematically possible, it is a tall order for the team to catch Alpine. The VCARB 01’s pace has fallen away in the last few races, and Liam Lawson’s performances have left much to be desired in recent rounds. While Yuki Tsunoda’s performances continue to impress as he targets the Red Bull seat, he will need a miracle to move the team out of seventh in the standings.
Sergio Perez – A final race in all but name
It is almost an open secret that Red Bull will drop Sergio Perez after this weekend. Paddock whisperers, fans and pundits have all concluded the Mexican’s days in F1 are numbered. But Perez himself maintains he will race for the team next season.
Such has been the dire nature of his year; taking Perez’s points out of the equation, with Red Bull only running Verstappen’s car, the team would still lie third in the standings going into the weekend. He has cost Red Bull the championship this year, including the tens of millions of extra dollars in prize money.
Denial is powerful, but pride is the only thing keeping him from announcing his retirement. Christian Horner has stated in the media that Perez should know his situation in the team by now, and a board meeting after the race will ultimately decide his fate.
But his future has already been decided, and the writing is very much on the wall. Unless, by some miracle, he wins the Abu Dhabi GP, his seat cannot be saved. If and when the announcement comes, it will bring to an end a career that started back in 2011 for Sauber.
If Perez accepts his career with Red Bull is over and acknowledges this publicly, he can leave the sport with dignity. However, much like his season, any chance to save the situation has long since passed.
