Motorsport Week’s staffers have been hard at work on our opening feature of the New Year, 18 things to watch in 2018.
We had a hard time picking just 18 points, but we think these will be the main things to look out for in the coming twelve months of motorsport…
Note: This feature originally appeared in issue 247 of our sister publication Motorsport Monday – our weekly free magazine published every Monday – to read the latest issue, click here. To subscribe, head to www.motorsportmonday.com.
Will we finally get a three-team F1 title fight?
Ferrari joined Mercedes at the front of the field in 2017, setting up a two-way title fight for the first time in the current era, as the historic marque traded blows circuit-by-circuit, their varying strengths and weaknesses playing out. However, while a close, intense fight across the opening half of the campaign promised a tantalising showdown, Mercedes’ form and Ferrari’s capitulation resulted in the season turning on its head during a six-week spell. Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes were ultimately deserving champions, but there were signs of optimism for 2018. Ferrari, unlike in previous years, developed strongly through the season, and still displayed race-winning pace even at Grands Prix where their results suffered. Red Bull, meanwhile, was not a factor for the first half of the year, after correlation issues left them two months down on chassis development, accentuated by Renault’s deficiencies. Across the final few Grands Prix, Red Bull was back in the mix, firmly outlining that it will be a title contender this year if it can begin 2018 on the right foot. Mercedes – having taken 15 poles and 12 wins from 20 races in 2017 – still has the target on its back, but stable regulations, and the optimism harboured by Ferrari and Red Bull, suggests there is hope for a three-way season-long title battle this year.
Who will Mercedes turn to for 2019?
The 2018 season is still on the horizon but the inevitable glance at the future means the driver machinations for 2019 are already underway. Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen already hold long-term deals at Ferrari and Red Bull respectively, while Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes are expected to continue their marriage beyond the end of 2018. The identity of Hamilton’s team-mate, however, remains unclear, and there are three obvious candidates. Incumbent Valtteri Bottas, having joined in early 2017, impressed during his first year with the Silver Arrows, but his one-year extension allowed Mercedes to keep his options open. The advantage, naturally, is with Bottas. If he begins the year strongly, regularly threatens Hamilton, and competes for the title, Mercedes will be forced into a corner, with Bottas in the pound seats. If not, and Mercedes feels Bottas is not its best long-term option, then Esteban Ocon and Daniel Ricciardo are favoured. Ocon has impressed during spells with Manor and Force India, and knows that he will be closely tracked by the Mercedes bosses who have backed him since 2015. Ricciardo, meanwhile, is out of contract, quick, highly marketable, and aware that – aged 28 – his next career decision will be hugely crucial to his title prospects. Indeed, Ricciardo’s choice will determine the state of the driver market, for the leading trio of teams will all be keeping an eye on his performances.
Can McLaren-Renault deliver the goods?
McLaren remains one of Formula 1’s most-known and well-loved teams, but it has not taken a trophy since 2014, and not mounted the top step of the podium since 2012. Much of that drought is down to the ultimately disastrous Honda project, as ambitions to rekindle the late 80s/early 90s dominance fell by the wayside. Honda’s decision to introduce a new power unit concept in 2017 was correct, but its short-term setbacks could not be countenanced further by McLaren, whose frustrations grew amid missed targets and broken promises. A split was inevitable. McLaren sounded out Mercedes and Ferrari but eventually aligned itself with Renault – prompting reasons for optimism, and also caution. McLaren has repeatedly praised its chassis, and lauded the results of changes made across recent years, having been abject even pre-Honda in 2013/14. It now has the brand of engine which has powered Red Bull to multiple wins, and one which is still improving, amid Renault’s desire to return itself to the top of the Formula 1 tree. And yet. The Red Bull-Renault relationship is hardly one which is, shall we say, rosy. Renault also spectacularly fell out with Toro Rosso – whose supply McLaren has effectively taken up. Renault undoubtedly provides a step up in performance and reliability compared to Honda, but it is not the magic bullet, and if the Japanese marque gets it right with Toro Rosso, then there will not be happy faces at Woking. Nevertheless, McLaren should expect to be a solid P4 in 2018 – perhaps with wins – which is, at least, better than 2015 to 2017.
Who will prevail in the midfield scrap?
Formula 1’s decision to introduce revised regulations for 2017 created a split, with the ‘midfield’ group further away than ever from the leading outfits. In reality, the midfield was still fractured, with Force India substantially in front – points-wise – of their rivals, as only the scrap for P6 went down to the finale. For 2018, there remain several unknowns – an obviously exciting proposition. A McLaren-Renault partnership should surely vault the midfield, but Force India has been confounding expectations for years, so another assault on fourth cannot be ruled out. Force India has been investing in its facilities, has frequently produced strong, driveable, easy-to-develop cars, which will again be equipped with Mercedes power units. And in Sergio Pérez and Esteban Ocon it has a strong line-up. They will surely face competition from Renault. The manufacturer has gradually improved since its full-time return in 2016, and in Nico Hülkenberg and Carlos Sainz Jr. has a hugely competitive driving pairing, its strongest since the days of Fernando Alonso. As part of its long-term vision, Renault pinpointed 2018 as the year to start delivering podiums – Enstone, Hülkenberg and Sainz Jr. are more than capable if the ingredients can be moulded correctly. A Paddy Lowe-led, Mercedes-powered Williams squad cannot be forgotten, though its drivers may leave it on the backfoot. Haas, meanwhile, has improved year-on-year, and can execute a top-six performance at its strongest – eradicating its weaknesses will be key to its ongoing development.
How will Leclerc adapt to Formula 1?
From Formula 3 through to Formula 1, via title-winning GP3 and Formula 2 campaigns, Charles Leclerc’s rise up the junior ranks has been a joy to witness. In GP3 he remained slightly fragile and prone to frustration under pressure, while in Formula 2 he sculpted the narrative at each weekend, blending speed with ruthless execution. He won six races, topped qualifying nine times, and could have picked up a bagful more points but for costly disqualifications and a handful of exits out of his control. Leclerc, backed by Ferrari, is the real deal, and his Formula 1 opportunity with the Alfa Romeo-affiliated Sauber squad is thoroughly deserved. It also comes at the ideal time for both parties, with Sauber on the rise after a tumultuous period, and Leclerc able to get up to speed in Formula 1 away from the spotlight of the sharp end of the grid. Hopefully, this will prove to be of assistance, for the step to Formula 1 cannot be underestimated – the cars are faster, there are more people to deal with, a more intense schedule, and many other small nuances which add up. As with other young stars, Leclerc must be given the space and freedom to develop; his F2 campaign shows what he can do – with Sauber, in Formula 1, expectations must be lowered. Nevertheless, Kimi Räikkönen will be 39 in October, and Ferrari may need a 2019 replacement. If he can shine in 2018 and grasp his opportunities then he will thrust himself into contention.
What can Toro Rosso/Honda achieve?
The alliance between Toro Rosso and Honda creates a fascinating sub-plot for 2018 which may yet have wider ramifications as the year progresses. A team which repeatedly targets fifth but finishes seventh (it has done so in each season of the hybrid era), links up with an engine supplier which has yet to grasp the regulations in three attempts, to produce a package for two highly-capable drivers who are, it must be noted, unproven in Formula 1 terms. Depending on your mindset, this could either be the recipe for a surprise success story, or the ingredients for a total disaster. The reality is likely to be somewhere in the middle – there is no Brawn GP here, nor is there a fiasco-in-waiting. Honda’s decision to revise its power unit concept for 2017 frustrated McLaren – as did some mid-season setbacks – but it did so convinced it would be beneficial long-term, and it is exactly that which Toro Rosso – holders of a three-year contract – can gain from. Amid the jokes and the sneering, Honda did make strides through the year and with several months of off-season work has little excuse not to be in the mix for 2018. Toro Rosso, in turn, should profit from being Honda’s exclusive partner, rather than Renault’s tired thirds, let alone sloppy seconds. Honda management changes suggest it has learned from previous failings and if the correct structure, allied to financial backing, is in place, then – whisper it – Toro Rosso-Honda could thrive. And if they do, Red Bull will come calling…
Will anyone last on three engines?
Good news for fans of late-night grid-forming challenges – there will be even fewer engine parts allocated per driver this season. Under new-for-2014 regulations, the FIA clamped down on power unit components in a bid to enhance Formula 1’s green credentials, and also to reduce the costs. The idea was logical, but not thought through well enough, with the negatives fully accentuated by Honda’s problems in 2015. If a component needs changing, it needs changing. Grid penalties, particularly for Renault and Honda-powered drivers, have racked up across the closing events in recent years, with some using them tactically, reaching its nadir in Italy and Mexico last season. The FIA has moved to alleviate the problem somewhat by capping sanctions at 15 places, meaning drivers will be sent to the back of the grid in chronological order of receipt of penalty – at least meaning the days of 20, 25, 30 or more place drops are gone. However, while those who have been able to avoid the drops (notably Mercedes and Ferrari) must be commended for producing a power unit able to comply with the regulations, there is apprehension that 2018 will be a repeat of 2017, and for good reason. The calendar is one-round longer this year, and the allocation of PUs has been reduced from four to three. Some of the (more reliable) elements of the PU are capped at two. A solution, complex to achieve, must be sought for 2019.
Can revised tyre compounds increase action?
The move to wider tyres – allied to faster, higher-downforce cars – led Pirelli to adopt a more conservative approach for 2017, meaning the majority of dry-weather races were won using a one-stop strategy. The softest of three available compounds was used for qualifying and the first stint, with the second-softest for the remainder of the race, while the hardest compound was all-but-abandoned, used only for a few FP1 laps. The Hard tyre was used only during practice in Spain. Pirelli accepted it needed to be more aggressive for 2018 and embarked upon an extensive testing programme with all Formula 1 teams at a variety of locations with current-year cars, undoubtedly a step-up in its previous preparations. Pirelli opted to make its compounds a step softer, while simultaneously introducing a pink-banded Hyper Soft tyre, as well as a back-up Super Hard compound, which is unlikely to be used. The compound names have been mocked (and rightly so, for a Super Soft compound potentially being the hardest at a Grand Prix is totally illogical), but broadening its range, and giving it more scope to differ, is a positive move from Pirelli, as is the general slide towards softer tyres. No-one wants dire one-stoppers in the same vein that no-one wants four-stoppers on bubblegum tyres; finding a balance is tricky, but Pirelli is on the right route. What would also be preferable is tyres which operate in a wider window, after numerous complaints from several teams and drivers through 2017 that the range in which the rubber works correctly is too narrow.
How will Liberty, and halo, continue to change F1?
Liberty Media arrived in Formula 1, immediately installed a three-person structure to replace Bernie Ecclestone, recruited heavily, and set about putting a long-term plan in place, while tweaking small elements in the interim. Consequently, prize money dropped for 2017, prompting some snide remarks from a couple of figures, firmly outlining that the honeymoon period is now over. The most pressing element for Liberty Media is to give Formula 1 an identity moving forwards, a tricky task as it tries to balance reaching new territories while keeping the current fanbase satiated. One of its most important tasks surrounds the post-2020 regulations, and how – or if – it manages to keep all parties satisfied. Ferrari, it has been noted, has already been vocal in its criticism. A face-off is coming. On a similar note, if someone could switch Sean Bratches into English mode, as opposed to using an unintelligible lexicon that makes the parodied Ronspeak appear normal, that would also be much appreciated. Elsewhere, the most striking year-on-year change is the introduction of the ‘halo’ head protection device, which finally arrives in Formulas 1 and 2 almost two years after its first on-track test. Increasing head protection has been a long-term goal of the FIA, but the dubious aesthetics of the system has attracted criticism, and hopefully the halo becomes the catalyst for a better solution to be unearthed and developed. The integration – both technically and visually – of the three-pronged (heavy) structure will also be intriguing to witness.
Who will win Formula 2’s battle of Britain?
Mercedes vs McLaren. GP3 vs Formula 3. Norfolk vs Somerset. Two of motorsport’s rising stars will battle it out in Formula 2 this year as they strive to move up the single-seater ladder and stake their claim for a 2019 seat in the premier class. Mercedes-backed George Russell kicked up a gear in 2017 and swept to the GP3 crown, beating more established team-mates, and assimilated within Force India after a couple of FP1 runs – his reward for wrapping up the GP3 title early. Russell is poised to move up to Formula 2 with ART, while compatriot Lando Norris will also stay with his title-winning outfit as he and Carlin both move into the division. Norris’ rise through 2017 was rapid as he cantered to the Formula 3 crown, aided by a devastating mid/late-season run, and impressed with his speed and application during his Formula 1 test outing, as he took on more duties with McLaren. Both ART and Carlin will ostensibly be aided by the new-for-2018 Formula 2 package, though the squads – and their British chargers – will face challenges from elsewhere. Prema, having guided Pierre Gasly (2016) and Charles Leclerc (2017) to titles, will field Nyck de Vries, the Dutchman having shown flashes of potential during a stuttering single-seater career. As ever, line-ups are still being finalised, but the usual group of rising F1-backed youngsters and a ragtag bunch of journeymen will no doubt provide the action.
Will it be more of the same in Mercedes’ last DTM campaign?
The DTM has undergone something of a reinvention in recent years with the return to a two-race weekend format and close competition, even if Audi wound up with its drivers 1-2-3-4 in the final standings last year. However, mid-season Mercedes dropped a bombshell: that it would depart DTM at the end of 2018, bringing its lengthy stay in the series to an end. Manoeuvres were already underway for the future, with DTM teams demonstrating machinery at a Super GT event, and vice versa, amid suggestions of co-operation between the championships. Nevertheless, the DTM still faces an “adapt or die” scenario, with grid numbers already having reduced from 24 to 18 after the three current manufacturers each reduced their entries. With just BMW and Audi signed up for 2019, it is improbable to expect the series to thrive without changes, whatever they may be. The WTCC and TCR, for example, have merged for 2018. However, that will be the underlying theme through 2018 – there is still a title to be settled. 12 different drivers shared the 18 race wins last year as the title was decided at the finale between four of them – underlining the competitive nature of the series, which has had little year-on-year regulation changes. The championship has also ventured back to Britain and Italy, at Brands Hatch and Misano respectively, with the relatively unloved Moscow Raceway ditched. 2019 may be unclear, but 2018 could be a year to savour.
Can Toyota possibly lose ‘Super Season’ title?
Toyota heads into the new ‘super’ season of the World Endurance Championship as the overwhelming favourite, but can the influx of privately-run LMP1 teams mount a challenge on the sole remaining manufacturer? Series bosses at the FIA and ACO will use engine data to establish parity between the Davids (ByKolles, SMP, Rebellion, DragonSpeed, Manor and an unnamed Ginetta customer) and the hybrid Goliath come the opening round at Spa in May. The weight of expectation will be heavy on Toyota’s shoulders. Having recently squandered two major shots at Le Mans victory, it now has a proverbial open net to aim for with Audi and Porsche gone. Company directors would very much like to avoid seeing it involved in another muddy goalmouth scramble at the 24-hours. Whoever wins the 2018-19 championship, hybrid or not, will need to be persistent. The new calendar format marks one of the biggest changes to the WEC since it restarted in 2012. A nine-race programme spanning eight months has made way for an eight-race programme over 14 months, meaning the upcoming season won’t end until the Le Mans of June 2019. It also means the gaps between races will be longer, most notably a four-month break between the final round of 2018 at Shanghai and the 1,500-miler at Sebring. Despite losing events, the inclusion of three endurance classics will increase not only the racing time, but also the opportunities to gain (and lose) points. Toyota might be the favourite, but who’s saying it will last the distance?
Who will triumph in the battle of the IMSA Heavyweights?
The invasion forces from Joest-Mazda, Penske-Acura and a host of privateer LMP2 teams have triggered a surge of global interest in North America’s top sportscar series. Their presence has boosted entry numbers in the top prototype category to 20 for the Daytona opener in a week’s time. IMSA introduced the DPi formula last year to give US-based manufacturers a racing platform that fitted into the chassis-limiting global LMP2 rulebook, and its uptake since then has been impressive. DPi’s debut year was mastered by Cadillac, but by the end of the campaign Nissan and most of the LMP2s had latched onto the pace. In 2018, the ante will be upped further by the addition of 15-time Le Mans winner Joest Racing, which has recruited British endurance stars Harry Tincknell and Oliver Jarvis to the Mazda DPi programme it inherited last summer. Another big arrival is Penske, which stated its intentions in October by qualifying on pole at the Road Atlanta finale with a borrowed ORECA LMP2. It then poached Ricky Taylor from defending series champion WTR, and has introduced some of its most successful IndyCar stars who will join forces behind the wheel of two twin-turbo Acura ARX-05s (which are based on the ORECA shell). There’s also an expanded Cadillac entry, with Spirit of Daytona recently becoming GM’s third customer, and the addition of some former class champions to LMP2. This year, the gloves will be off for a twelve-round clash of titans, and US sportscar fans will be snapping up the ringside seats.
How will Alonso fare in sportscar competition?
Fernando Alonso wowed the US fanbase when he took on last year’s Indianapolis 500 field, but 2018 looks set to take the talents of F1’s resident polymath in an entirely new direction. In October, Alonso sealed a deal to race with United Autosports – the team co-run by McLaren CEO Zak Brown and Le Mans GT2 winner Richard Dean – at the Daytona 24 Hours. A rigorous testing regimen made the two-time F1 champion’s winter schedule tighter than normal with rollouts at Bahrain (in an LMP1 Toyota), Aragon and, most recently, at the public Roar Before the 24. Alonso will share the Ligier-Gibson LMP2 with McLaren junior Lando Norris and Asian LMP3 champion Phil Hanson, both of whom are also making their debuts at the 3.56-mile road-oval course. Of the three, Hanson is the only one with prior sportscar experience. How will Alonso fare in the relentless pounding of a 24-hour event? Constant traffic will be one of the first hills to climb, but the toughest aspect will likely be racing at night, for the practice time is limited and the general environment harsher than anything he’s previously encountered. The Ligier is a competitive package, but the standard of competition – including Alonso’s F1 rival Lance Stroll – suggests it won’t be a simple introduction. The word ‘introduction’ is key, though. Alonso’s ambition is to race at Le Mans and doing Daytona, with support from his McLaren boss and a sportscar aficionado in Brown, can only be good practice for something bigger down the line…
Can Formula E change Swiss minds?
In four years of competition, Formula E has successfully brought motorsport to different global cities, and the all-electric single seater racing series will once again make history. June 10 is the set date for the inaugural Zurich ePrix – an event which will mark Switzerland’s first circuit race in over 60 years following a ban on motor racing in the nation since 1955, caused by the infamous Le Mans disaster of the same year. The event, home for 2015/16 champion Sébastien Buemi, was given the go-ahead by the FIA’s World Motorsport Council in 2017, with a 2015 law change in the nation allowing fully-electric racing to take place, thus paving Formula E’s path to the country’s capital. The Zurich ePrix is just one of a number of new races of the fourth season of Formula E, with Santiago and Rome also joining the calendar for the 2017-18 season, highlighting the continuing growth of the revolutionary series which is allowing research and development in the sustainable automotive industry to continue. After December’s Hong Kong ePrix which saw two different winners in Sam Bird and Felix Rosenqvist, and five different teams standing on the podium in the two rounds, this season’s fight appears to be closer than ever, which will make for an exciting championship battle. Following the cancellation of the Montreal ePrix, which was once again set to close the season with a double-header round, the Zurich ePrix could prove to be one of the final races of the season if an alternate venue is not found for the championship’s finale in late July. If this is the case, could the championship be concluded at the circuit and could it be Buemi who comes out on top in season four in what would be a triumphant victory in front of his home crowd in the Swiss capital?
Can Ogier, M-Sport do it again?
Sébastien Ogier joined M-Sport at the start of 2017 to much fanfare following the departure of Volkswagen, but title success with the small British team certainly wasn’t what many expected, despite Ogier’s form which had delivered four consecutive championships prior to ’17. But a strong start to the year with victory at Rally Monte Carlo followed by top three finishes in the following two rounds put the Frenchman firmly in the battle. He would go on to win by less than a victory with a 24-point advantage over runner-up Thierry Neuville. Drawn out contract negotiations during the winter finally came to an end with news that Ogier would remain at M-Sport, which begs the question, can they do it all again in ’18? It’s certainly no small feat for a privateer team given the manufacturer powerhouses of Hyundai, Toyota and Citroën, but who’s to say it can’t be repeated? A second season together will only make the Ogier/M-Sport pairing a stronger combination and with the announcement that Ford will boost its backing to the team, that can only be seen as a major advantage – and likely the reason Ogier stayed put for another season. Of course Neuville will be looking to go one better and Ogier’s former M-Sport team-mate Ott Tänak will be hoping his Toyota switch will pay off. Only time will tell.
How will Loeb fare in part-time comeback?
Let’s talk about another Sébastien; this time the legend that is Loeb, who announced a part-time return to the WRC for 2018. As far as domination goes, it doesn’t come much more emphatic than nine consecutive title successes, making the Frenchman the series’ most successful ever. However we won’t be seeing a tenth as Loeb has only signed on for three rallies with the Citroën team, replacing Craig Breen in Mexico, Corsica and Spain. Loeb will partner up with co-driver Daniel Elena once again and will be bidding to prove he’s still got what it takes. Could it lead to a full-time comeback in the future? Well it isn’t the first time Loeb’s flirted with a comeback after his original full-time retirement in 2012. He competed most recently in 2015, but that was a sole event, making this the most serious hint that he misses the thrill of threading a car through a tight forest path at 100mph. Can Loeb prove he’s still got the touch amongst increasingly difficult competition? Whatever the outcome, this latest chapter in WRC history can certainly do the series no harm as the return of its biggest name will draw fans from far and wide.
How will the standard aero-kit affect IndyCar?
It has been labelled as the biggest change to IndyCar in half a decade as the series adopts a standard aero-kit for 2018, bringing an end to the manufacturer-designed kits used in previous years. Although the continued presence of two engine suppliers – Honda and Chevrolet – means it is not quite a ‘spec-series’, it will be pretty close to one. The adoption of a standard aero-kit has primarily been implemented to reduce costs, but a secondary benefit will be an increased spectacle, putting the emphasis very much on the driver. It’s something that obviously works well, with other championships producing standout competition. IndyCar has never had a real problem with overtaking, the lead often changes hands numerous times – more so at ovals than street courses – but this should lead to even closer racing and more unpredictable results on all tracks, at least to begin. There is of course a downside in that every car will look the same and innovation will somewhat die, but do the fans in the grandstands really care? Is that what matters? If it is, I’m certain the better racing that will come as a result of the standard aero-kit will quickly make them forget. IndyCar is set for a stellar season of close racing and you can’t ask for much more than that.
