The thought of Max Verstappen racing in Formula 1 not in Red Bull colours has been considered inconceivable ever since the team provided him with the equipment to produce record-breaking standards.
Verstappen has been aligned with Red Bull prior to his groundbreaking entrance into the top flight at the tender age of 17, and he has been rewarded for his patience during several seasons riddled with uncompetitive and unreliable engines with unrivalled feats since the sport’s return to ground effect cars.
Having risen to third in the all-time wins list with victories in 34 of the past 44 races ahead of this campaign, Verstappen has utilised Red Bull’s retained advantage over the rest to storm unopposed to the top step of the podium in the first two races of 2024.
But amid the backdrop of its relentless on-track success, the headlines surrounding Red Bull have been on developments elsewhere following an investigation into allegations of inappropriate behaviour against Team Principal Christian Horner.
Although Horner was cleared from those accusations and he has sought to repeat the rhetoric that the team remains “united”, the friction that has encapsulated Red Bull in the opening rounds has been rather palpable.
Verstappen had not long commenced the latest season with a crushing triumph in Bahrain when the news pivoted towards comments from his father Jos, who implied that Horner’s place had become untenable as his presence could “tear apart” Red Bull.
Verstappen endeavoured to defuse the situation in Saudi Arabia with the admission that the pair could overcome their quibble.
However, the Dutch driver’s defiance that his father is “not a liar” and the cautious response when asked whether he could support Horner on several occasions has been telling about the corner he is backing.
This was further exemplified when Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko suggested that he could be suspended amid a probe into media leaks, with Verstappen noting that the stalwart’s exit would trigger problems.
Nevertheless, Marko has addressed that he will remain in his role, while Verstappen also reiterated that he intended to complete his long-term contract until the end of 2028.
But despite Verstappen appearing to have put reports over a departure to bed, the rumour mill will continue to see his future be speculated the further the saga develops.
Lewis Hamilton has highlighted that Verstappen would be unwise to leave Red Bull while it remains the pre-eminent force, but the continued on-track riches form just one part of the situation that has taken precedence over the racing action this term.
There is no smoke without fire in F1, as illustrated by Hamilton’s choice to leave Mercedes for Ferrari in 2025, and Verstappen’s position as a pawn in an apparent power struggle could see the tide turn on his commitment to Red Bull Racing.
Having been dealt the blow of losing Hamilton to a rival, Mercedes will be casting a glance on developments at Red Bull, with Team Principal Toto Wolff remarking that Marko, who shares a close connection with the Verstappen camp, would be welcome.
Wolff is a cunning operator and those comments would have been planted with the intention of adding fuel to the fire. It also formed the basis of a public invitation to Verstappen that Mercedes would be prepared to instigate contract talks should the reigning champion become available.
Mercedes has been placed in somewhat of a conundrum over whether to prioritise an experienced driver or an upcoming star alongside George Russell for next season. However, the potential chance to prize Verstappen out of the Red Bull stable would provide a solution to that unresolved issue.
Wolff has long admired Verstappen, with it having been well-documented that Mercedes had courted the Dutchman prior to Red Bull beating the marque to his signature on the premise that the Austrian outfit could guarantee an immediate promotion to F1.
Verstappen’s supreme talent was undeniable at that stage, but he has since smoothed his exuberance to translate from a diamond in the rough to a refined racer who is the standout competitor of the latest generation.
Along with his undoubted brilliance behind the wheel, poaching Verstappen would be a worthwhile coup for the boost he would bring to Mercedes as a global figure. While he can’t replace Hamilton’s status as a worldwide icon not exclusive to racing – nor would he want to – partners have queued up to be associated with the Verstappen brand.
However, Wolff is under no illusion that imperative to acquiring Verstappen would be ensuring it can provide him with a competitive car to continue his quest to collect more trophies before he retires.
Right now, Mercedes would not count as a favourable destination to fulfil that. The German marque has floundered since being the opponent to Verstappen’s maiden championship tilt in 2021, accruing one win under the latest ground effect regulations.
Despite eradicating the recalcitrant tendencies of its predecessor with the revamped W15 machine for 2024, Mercedes has encountered further teething troubles related to high-speed cornering, which the team has labelled as a “fundamental” issue.
A third successive season without a remnant of evidence that it is close to understanding the latest iteration of machines will threaten to see the narrative on Mercedes evolve from it being considered a team going through a minor blip to one encountering its downfall.
However, the impending implementation of a wholesale regulation change will threaten to disrupt the pecking order, and it can’t be ruled out that Verstappen’s entourage has angled for a Red Bull exit in the knowledge that its preparations aren’t going to plan.
Red Bull has built a Powertrains division to construct its own engine as part of a collaboration with automotive giant Ford, but Ferrari has warned that new power unit manufacturers will be at a disadvantage come the overhauled 2026 arrangement.
Meanwhile, senior Red Bull personnel have voiced concerns over the regulations being geared towards an engine-dominated formula. The last time that occurred in 2014, Mercedes commenced a record-breaking streak of eight consecutive championships.
Verstappen has claimed that it is premature to draw conclusions on how Red Bull’s latest motorsport venture is developing, but he is certain to have been in the loop enough to gather a read of how things are progressing.
While Verstappen is indebted to Red Bull, there should be no doubt that he would be prepared to abandon ship in the circumstance where he is disillusioned. Nor should his commitment to Red Bull be mistaken for lacking self-confidence that he could succeed outside of his settled surroundings.
With the 2024 cars providing the base for their successors, a move from Red Bull would be an inevitable backward step short-term for a driver who reiterated that he won’t pursue a Fernando Alonso-esque F1 career.
However, Verstappen’s potential exit from Red Bull could come amid an attempt to be in the best position for the next regulations.
Mercedes is rumoured to be ahead on engine development compared to the rest and providing those reports have substance, the outfit could have a strong bargaining tool to persuade Verstappen in the same manner in which it managed to get Hamilton to move from McLaren based on future projections.
Although there are marked dissimilarities to the drivers’ respective fortunes at those moments, Mercedes would be desperate to not miss out on an opening to bolster its ranks and weaken Red Bull in the process.
Russell has admitted he would be prepared for the challenge, citing that Verstappen is the “best driver on the grid”, while Wolff went as far as to state that each of Red Bull’s competitors would do “handstands” to have the three-time F1 title winner in their car.
Red Bull would still continue to succeed in a world without Verstappen, but he has also helped to elevate the benchmark that the Milton-Keynes-based squad has raised.
The struggle that Red Bull has had in replacing Daniel Ricciardo since his departure at the end of 2018 and the trouble Sergio Perez endured last season is evidence that the team is in no fit shape to run the risk of Verstappen going elsewhere.
Horner has stated that no individual is bigger than the team, but in Verstappen’s case, the possible dominoes that could fall in the wake of his eventual exit perhaps argue otherwise.
In the case where Horner’s supposed bluff is called, Mercedes might not be the sole suitor clamouring for Verstappen’s prized services.
As Mercedes has failed to scale the heights that made it once invincible, Aston Martin has been a team on the rise in recent times. The Silverstone-based squad that used to operate on a shoestring budget has been backed by the billionaire pockets of Canadian Lawrence Stroll since mid-2018.
Stroll was responsible for saving the team and securing its future with the transition into Aston Martin in 2021. While successive placings of seventh came in the two seasons following that move, Aston Martin announced its F1 breakthrough last season when it emerged as Red Bull’s closest contender in the nascent stages of the year.
Although Aston Martin’s competitiveness would regress as the development race ramped up and it slipped back to fifth in the Constructors’ Championship, the team amassed 255 more points than it had done the past season alongside eight podiums.
However, Stroll Sr’s ambitions extend to wanting to propel Aston Martin into a title-contending outfit and that has been mirrored by the sizeable investment into a brand-new, state-of-the-art headquarters and simulator.
Stroll Sr has demonstrated he is prepared to make big moves to realise his dream and that includes on the driver front with the past signings of Sebastian Vettel and Alonso. The Spaniard, 42, has continued to be at the top of his game but has conceded that he will have to decide whether he wants to extend.
In the scenario where Alonso elects to either retire again or pursue an alternative seat, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Stroll Sr go and enquire about Verstappen’s interest.
Like Mercedes, Aston Martin would be able to provide the attraction that it heads into F1’s next generation as a factory outfit with the backing of Honda, a manufacturer with whom Verstappen has an existing affiliation.
Aston Martin’s agreement with Honda has been noted as a landmark step in its long-term aspirations as the team becomes less dependent on sourcing customer parts from Mercedes with its gearbox and suspension.
Furthermore, Stroll Sr is more inclined to provide the less corporate and more laid-back environment in which Verstappen has thrived at Red Bull compared to Mercedes amid the rigours of a 24-round calendar.
Verstappen is a thoroughbred racer and the focus being removed from his achievements has not sat well. While Horner remains at the helm that is not going to change, though, and could lead Verstappen towards a career-altering decision that transcends the landscape of a sport Red Bull is dominating.
