Ferrari has announced Lewis Hamilton will be arriving at the team from Mercedes in 2025, marking the biggest bombshell move in recent Formula 1 history. But why has he chosen now as the time to make that eagerly-anticipated change and what implications are set to follow?
The prospect of Hamilton and Ferrari coming together had long been mooted: F1’s most illustrious team and arguably its greatest driver appeared a match made in heaven.
But as Mercedes continued to obliterate its rivals – including Ferrari – in the nascent stages of F1’s V6 turbo-hybrid engine era and stormed to an unmatched eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships, Hamilton, who added six Drivers’ titles to equal the leading total of seven, had no logical reason to depart the dominant entity of that moment.
However, the German marque has been unable to maintain that success since F1’s return to ground effect machinery in 2022, logging only one victory in the last two years.
The root of the problems Mercedes has encountered under this regulation cycle can be traced back to the ambitious ‘zeropod’ concept that it had conceived at the beginning of this ruleset, with the team being misguided when the 2022 Brazilian Grand Prix delivered a breakthrough 1-2 race finish.
That victory prompted Mercedes to retain the slim sidepod configuration last term, with the team determined to unlock the underlying performance it had been unable to extract with a W13 car that proved to be recalcitrant.
But pre-season testing and the opening race in Bahrain demonstrated that Mercedes had trodden down the wrong development path once again, resulting in Team Principal Toto Wolff proclaiming it would need to reverse the choices it had made on its W14 charger.
Hamilton, in particular, seemed disillusioned with the direction Mercedes had gone down, revealing that changes he had requested hadn’t been implemented over the winter.
While the team would introduce a revised concept that converged on the downwash sidepod solution pioneered by Red Bull, the limitations imposed by F1’s budget cap meant Mercedes continued to be laboured with its launch-spec chassis, which resigned it to a first season without a win since 2011.
Nevertheless, Hamilton remained upbeat about Mercedes’ chances moving forward and penned a two-year contract extension to remain at Mercedes until the end of 2025.
Amid doubts over his future prior to that, the Briton had been linked with a switch to Ferrari, with speculation even touting that the terms of such a deal had been discussed.
Both parties denied this, though, with Hamilton revealing plans to emulate the late Stirling Moss by holding an affiliation with the Mercedes brand until his “last days”.
That declaration came last April. Fast forward less than 12 months and Hamilton will be cutting his ties with the German outfit to embark upon an unfulfilled racing dream.
So, what has changed in that intervening period for Hamilton to decide Ferrari represents a better bet than Mercedes for the closing years of his star-studded career?
Looking at their respective results, Hamilton’s future team trailed three points adrift of the one he will be waving goodbye to at the conclusion of the upcoming season.
However, Ferrari’s progression through the year was an impressive feat that wouldn’t have gone unnoticed, with the Italian squad landing the sole non-Red Bull win of 2023.
Heading into an unknown period with a regulation crossover to come, Ferrari has showcased that it retains the technical group that can assemble a competitive car capable of winning races from the start of a rules reset more recently than Mercedes has done.
Despite encountering an initial step back last season that emanated from wrongful development choices made under the previous regime’s watch, Ferrari has shown a willingness to learn from past errors and has since embraced a relentless recruitment process that has comprised poaching Loic Serra’s talents from under Mercedes’ nose.
That’s the sort of long-term planning that Hamilton might have considered when plotting his future, as evidenced by his switch from McLaren to Mercedes in 2013.
Providing Hamilton continues racing into his 40s, it’s a slamming indictment against Mercedes that he considers Ferrari to be the team that can provide the foundations for him to achieve that record championship.
Mercedes has been positive regarding the work being undertaken on its overhauled W15 car, which is being overseen by highly-rated Technical Director James Allison.
But the scale of Red Bull’s recent superiority means the Brackley-based side faces an uphill task to become a championship threat with this generation of ground effect cars.
Hamilton’s choice to leave a mere few months after pledging his allegiance to the team speaks volumes about what he believes is in store for Mercedes ahead.
Even though he’s been on record talking about his admiration for the scarlet red cars, Hamilton would plump for Mercedes if he still retained faith it could get things right.
Regardless of whether the Silver Arrows can scale its former heights, Hamilton’s gamble is worthwhile when a title with Ferrari would serve to enhance his F1 legacy even further.
While the Maranello-based camp had moved to tie down Charles Leclerc with a “multi-year” renewal, negotiations with Carlos Sainz had seemed to have stalled in recent times.
The timing and reported terms of Leclerc’s contract outlined that Ferrari was interested in assessing the market, leading to a speculative inquiry on Hamilton’s availability.
Although the signing goes against the idea of prioritising Leclerc, the chance to acquire a seven-time champion and weaken Mercedes is one Ferrari couldn’t miss out on.
Sainz has established himself as a credible competitor in his own right, but he lacks the star quality of a world-class operator who can elevate the ceiling of an F1 operation.
Together, Leclerc and Hamilton will unquestionably hand Ferrari the strongest driver pairing on the grid that will spur Leclerc to new heights and give academy prospect Oliver Bearman the time to outline himself as a successor to his compatriot.
With the astute Frederic Vasseur – a figure that both drivers relate to well – at the helm, Ferrari has the perfect set-up to ensure that the dynamic within the team doesn’t deteriorate in the same manner it has when past blockbuster pairings have been formed.
Leclerc’s Ferrari venture began with turning the tables on a multiple-time title winner in the form of Sebastian Vettel and he will relish the opportunity to learn and measure himself against another of F1’s all-time greats on the opposite side of the garage.
The positives to having the sport’s record win-holder are obvious, but Hamilton’s household status extends to outside a racing environment and Ferrari’s share price soared to $7 billion even before the announcement.
Elsewhere, Mercedes will have been stung by this unforeseen revelation after admitting that it reserved “no doubts” over Hamilton’s devotion to its ongoing rebuilding chapter.
Wolff had named Leclerc as a viable alternative for Mercedes down the line, but both he and the McLaren pairing of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are not available.
Although George Russell has displayed the speed to match Hamilton, there can be doubts surrounding his experience in spearheading a team with title aspirations. However, the Briton will be entering his seventh season in the top flight come 2025 and his team-mate’s exit will accelerate Mercedes’ plan to build around him.
The options for Mercedes are thin on the ground, with Sainz the strongest of those that could be on the market. But if the Spaniard was tentative about locking himself into a possible de facto number two role at Ferrari, what would be the incentive for Sainz to head to a Mercedes team where he could end up precisely in that feared predicament?
Instead, Sainz’s path looks poised to align with Sauber, who will evolve into an Audi entry from 2026, whom his father, Carlos Sr, won the Dakar Rally with just last month.
As for Hamilton and Ferrari, a fairytale partnership that seemed destined to remain just that has become a reality – one that his idol Ayrton Senna sadly never got to realise.
