Red Bull has a Marc Marquez problem on its hands with Formula 1 superstar Max Verstappen that it must avoid ending in a similar fashion.
F1 headlines have been saturated with the news that Red Bull is swapping Liam Lawson with Yuki Tsunoda after just two rounds of the 2025 campaign. Lawson becomes the fourth driver to suffer alongside Verstappen at Red Bull, but by far the quickest to get axed after Pierre Gasly, Alex Albon and Sergio Perez all took turns in filling the void Daniel Ricciardo left at the end of 2018.
READ MORE – Red Bull confirms Yuki Tsunoda swap with Liam Lawson from F1 Japanese GP
Unlike Ricciardo, who held his own against Verstappen, albeit before the Dutchman had fully released his monstrous talent, all of Red Bull’s subsequent second drivers have struggled to get to grips with a generation of difficult F1 machines.
It’s no secret that Red Bull tends to build cars with a narrow performance window, that, if found, can unlock some serious pace. Verstappen has found this window and flourished, achieving four world titles on the bounce. At best, Red Bull and Verstappen combined for 19 victories in a dominant 2023 campaign. A slide began in 2024 as Red Bull’s troublesome car started to bite back, leading to Perez’s exit amid a series of troubles and Verstappen fighting tooth and nail to clinch his fourth title.
In 2025, the situation is at its worst. No driver has suffered in the second Red Bull seat to the extent Lawson has, with him finishing last in both qualifying sessions at the Shanghai International Circuit. The Chinese Grand Prix was a reality check for Red Bull. Verstappen, with all his talent, could only finish fourth. The Dutchman has admitted that the ultimate pace to challenge Red Bull’s rivals isn’t there, which exposes the difficulties in getting into that aforementioned performance window.
With the Red Bull ceiling lowered, and the window remaining narrow, Lawson suffered hugely. The biggest question is, by taking Lawson out of the car and putting Tsunoda in, is the same issue going to happen?
How Red Bull’s predicament reflects Honda MotoGP saga
The situation reflects one that the Honda MotoGP squad has endured over recent years. Marquez burst onto the elite-level scene of prototype motorcycling racing in a similar vein to Verstappen, as a young, generational talent. Also, like Verstappen, Marquez has delivered on a huge promise, and he ran rampant to achieve six MotoGP titles in seven seasons from 2013 to 2019.
However, like Red Bull, Honda built a weapon that was difficult to tame, and Marquez’s freakish talents could do so, but other competitive, successful riders failed. After Dani Pedrosa, regarded as one of the greatest MotoGP riders to never win a title, retired at the end of 2018, Honda encountered the same troubles Red Bull did when Ricciardo left for Renault, coincidentally at the same time.
Pedrosa’s replacement, however, was Jorge Lorenzo, a multiple-GP champion who defeated some of the strongest competitors in MotoGP history, including Valentino Rossi, Casey Stoner and Marquez himself.
A two-year deal was cut one short at the end of 2019 as Lorenzo’s Honda stint was an unmitigated disaster, leading to the Spaniard’s retirement as Marquez won his sixth premier title. With Lorenzo cutting ties early, Honda looked for a quick replacement and found one in Marquez’s younger brother Alex, the 2019 Moto2 World Champion.
The 2020 season marked the beginning of Marquez’s struggles with injury after a massive crash in the opening round at Jerez, one he’s only just properly recovered from after several setbacks. This exposed the rookie Marquez brother to Honda’s difficult bike, and again, like others before him, he too struggled. So did his replacement, Pol Espargaro, another Moto2 Champion and latterly 2021 MotoGP title-winner, Joan Mir. All the while, the Honda machine got slower, but no easier to ride.
The problems came to a head when Marquez decided enough was enough, leaving Honda to join the satellite Gresini Ducati squad in 2024, taking third in the championship and winning multiple Grands Prix, while Honda’s struggles hit rock bottom, with Mir and Marquez’s replacement Luca Marini combining for just 35 points amid a series of crashes and injuries.
Red Bull must avoid losing Verstappen at all costs
Honda is slowly turning the tide at the start of 2025 as Marquez reaps the rewards of his factory Ducati switch to take an early vice-grip atop the MotoGP standings.
Red Bull must avoid this fate. The rumour mill suggested Mercedes was keen on Verstappen last year, it then spun towards Aston Martin on the eve of this campaign and McLaren CEO Zak Brown believes the Dutchman will race in silver next season.
It’s clear Red Bull’s issues weren’t Perez-limited. Yes, Perez didn’t perform to the standard he should have done, but there’s been historical evidence of that second seat being a handful across several generations of cars.
Drivers can’t handle it, and they’re not bad drivers. We’re seeing Albon flourish in the Williams, we’ve seen what Gasly can do at Alpine, they are quality drivers who, for whatever reason, struggled in the Red Bull, and that’s happened to Lawson now too.
The problem is the car and those issues are now starting to impact Verstappen’s pace also. Red Bull has stated that warning signs emerged in its dominant 2023 season, and it did not heed those warnings as they came to bite in 2024. They’re now worse, and Red Bull must act from a technical standpoint rather than endlessly swap out drivers in the second seat.
Like Marquez with Honda, if Verstappen feels Red Bull can no longer deliver, he will consider his options elsewhere, and without him, the struggles will worsen dramatically.
READ MORE – Helmut Marko reveals ‘unhappy’ Max Verstappen will benefit from Red Bull swap
