The 2024 season finale awaits as Jorge Martin holds a 24-point lead over Francesco Bagnaia in the MotoGP standings ahead of the SolidarityGP.
It appears that Martin has one hand on the championship, but there are still 37 points to play for and anything can happen over the course of a championship-deciding weekend.
Martin needs to score 14 points in total to win his maiden MotoGP title, while Bagnaia needs to hope for mistakes from his rival to bring him back into contention.
The Pramac rider could seal the title in the Sprint race on Saturday due to the current points situation, as Motorsport Week delves into the weekend’s title permutations.
What does Martin need to take the title?
Martin needs to finish eighth or higher in the Sprint race to have a chance of winning the title on Saturday, however it all depends on where rival Bagnaia finishes.
The double reigning world champion can prevent the title from being decided on Saturday as long as he finishes ahead of his main rival.
However, if Martin is to take the title in the Sprint race, he needs to outscore Bagnaia by just two points.
Therefore if the Spanish rider can take the Sprint victory, he will be crowned champion regardless of Bagnaia’s result.
Similarly, if Martin takes second, Bagnaia has to finish behind the Pramac rider in order for him to be champion on Saturday.
Should Martin finish the Sprint anywhere between third and eighth, he will need his nearest rival to cross the line at least two places behind him to win the title on Saturday afternoon.
However, if Martin finishes the Sprint ninth or lower, regardless of where Bagnaia finishes, the championship would continue into Sunday’s race.
A podium finish in the Grand Prix for Martin would also be enough to seal the title regardless of any other result this weekend.
Even if Bagnaia was to take Sprint victory in Barcelona ahead of Martin, the Spanish rider is still in a good position as Bagnaia would have to win the main race and hope that Martin finishes 12th or lower to stand any chance of retaining his title.
How can Bagnaia take the title?
While it looks like an uphill battle for Bagnaia, he can take comfort in knowing that there have been plenty of riders who have made mistakes in the past and lost the championship in the final round.
The most famous example of this was when Bagnaia’s mentor Valentino Rossi crashed out of the 2006 Valencian Grand Prix to gift the title to Nicky Hayden, which has served as comeback inspiration for riders for almost two decades.
To give himself the best chance of taking the title, it’s clear Bagnaia must score a maximum 37 points from the weekend.
However, no matter how the Italian performs he would still require a mistake from Martin in either race to stand a chance.
If Bagnaia can draw himself level on points with Martin in the standings come the end of the weekend, he will become a three time MotoGP champion on countback, due to his ten grand prix victories in 2024.
