Red Bull boss Christian Horner has predicted that a “flat-out” title battle will develop between the top four teams in Formula 1 in 2025 based on recent races this term.
McLaren has built upon its momentum last season to emerge as a genuine threat to Red Bull’s title aspirations with 42 points separating the two in the championship.
The Woking-based squad has outscored the reigning champions at each event since Lando Norris utilised updates in Miami to bag its sole win to date this campaign.
Meanwhile, Mercedes has overcome its previous trials and tribulations across the current ground effect regulation era to register three victories in the past four races.
Mercedes’ improvement appears to have come too late to mount a title charge this season, while Ferrari’s earlier competitiveness has dissipated amid failed updates.
However, Horner suspects the convergence that has seen five victors in the last seven races is setting up a tight contest in the final season prior to F1’s next overhaul.
“With four teams all fighting I think it’s great for the sport, and it was almost inevitable when you get consistency of regulations, you always get convergence,” he said.
“If you look through the history of Formula 1, I remember when I first came into Formula 1, Ron Dennis banging that drum back in 2005.
“He had the best car [at McLaren] at that time, but convergence has always brought the teams together.
“Of course, we’ve got a big regulation change in 2026 that will cause divergence.
“But between now and then, I think it’s going to be, for the next 18 months, it’s going to be flat out between the four teams.”
Horner believes that the closer competition at the sharp end is down to the limits on wind tunnel testing hampering Red Bull and how restrictive the current rules are.
“Inevitably, you get to the top of the curve, and we have less wind tunnel time than anybody because of the system of the ATR, and that’s normal,” Horner explained.
“You will continue to get convergence throughout next year as well. I think everybody’s getting to the top of the curve.
“One week it’s at the moment Mercedes, one week it’s McLaren, one week it’s Red Bull. Ferrari haven’t popped up for a while, so it keeps moving around.”
Red Bull hasn’t triumphed in the past three races and hasn’t had a driver on the podium in the last two, but Horner suggests that its recent plight has been overblown.
“The whole team is still working flat out on this car,” he addressed. “With stable regs, whatever we learn now is relevant to next year anyway.
“If you reflect on the first part of the year now, we’re over half distance. We’ve won seven grands prix. We’ve won two or three Sprint races.
“We’re leading both championships, but over recent weeks, that Constructors [lead] has diminished somewhat, and that’s where our focus is.”
Horner is optimistic Red Bull will recover once the season resumes in Zandvoort, citing that Verstappen’s 10-place drop created an unrepresentative image in Belgium.
“I think we know where we need to focus and improve, and that’s what everybody’s doing,” he continued.
“We took the pole by six-tenths yesterday. It was a very dominant display.
“And I think had Max started from the pole, it would have been a completely different race. We took the penalty here. We got damage limitation out of it.”
Pressed on whether Verstappen now had enough engines to complete the season, he said: “It depends what happens to the pool. We think we’re okay at the moment.”
