Red Bull’s decision to retain Sergio Perez past the Formula 1 summer break despite his slump came as a shock to the wider public, but must have been met with exultation within McLaren as the team has been handed an open goal in the race to win the 2024 championship.
Red Bull headed to the Miami Grand Prix having notched four victories in five races to sit atop both standings with a sizeable advantage and groans up and down the paddock that the 2024 season would be another Max Verstappen-led procession.
A brake issue for Verstappen in Australia aside, Red Bull had relatively little on-track concerns as the Dutchman continued to set the standards, while Perez was delivering in his supporting role, trailing his team-mate home in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Japan.
However, the Mexican has not stood on an F1 podium since the Chinese Grand Prix in April as Red Bull’s rivals closing in has coincided with him sustaining a dip in form.
Unlike last term, though, this time Perez’s spiral as the season unravels could have consequences on Red Bull’s F1 prospects.
McLaren has emerged as a genuine challenger to the throne that Red Bull has occupied since this ground effect ruleset began, with a comprehensive upgrade package in the States having made the MCL38 a match to the RB20, the successor to the all-conquering car that smashed all records in an unprecedented 2023 season.
But while McLaren has been able to count on two drivers to bring home the points, Red Bull has been attempting to preserve its margin with one hand tied behind its back.
Verstappen’s brilliance has ensured that he has retained a considerable 76-point lead in the Drivers’ Championship despite Red Bull’s slide, but the reigning F1 champion’s exploits alone are no longer enough to protect its Constructors’ Championship ambitions.
Red Bull’s endeavour to settle Perez with a multi-term contract extension has not brought the desired reward. The Mexican has since endured spins in damp conditions at the Hungarian and British Grands Prix, which have resigned him to starting down the order and leaving Verstappen isolated against a rampant McLaren and a resurgent Mercedes.
As a consequence, Perez has contributed a meagre 28 points across the past eight races, prompting an evaluation regarding his place to be high on the agenda during Red Bull’s summer internal meeting this week.
Perez’s dismal outing in the most recent Belgian Grand Prix weekend appeared set to be the final chapter in his Red Bull novel.
Having come within 0.003s of experiencing another premature elimination in Q2, the stage was set for Perez to turn in a much-needed, morale-boosting showing as he qualified in third place, securing a front-row start with Verstappen’s 10-place grid drop.
However, Perez sank without a trace come the race, dropping through the pack from the moment the lights went out and ending up down in eighth place on the road, seventh once George Russell was later disqualified.
The writing looked on the wall. Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko slammed Perez’s “complete collapse”, while Ricciardo, who had been grinning ear-to-ear all weekend, was seen in conversation with Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner and RB counterpart Laurent Mekies in the paddock.
Earlier in the weekend, Motorsport Week had spotted Horner having a quiet word with Perez, in between the Red Bull trucks that were located a level above the hospitality units, outside the media gaze. The discussion remains unknown; nevertheless, it was an intriguing sighting and added to the growing sense that Spa-Francorchamps was a last-chance saloon that Perez then failed.
As Ricciardo departed the circuit with Verstappen, it appeared destined that Perez’s time was up and the line-up that Horner has declared was the best that Red Bull has ever boasted would be reunited once again.
However, a little over 24 hours later, the news came that Perez had been handed a reprieve.
“Checo remains a Red Bull Racing driver, despite all the speculation of late,” Horner said.
“We’re looking forward to seeing him perform at circuits where he’s done well before, after the summer break.”
The exact phrasing has drawn much attention and doesn’t seem a coincidence. Horner has stressed that Perez will remain a Red Bull driver as it stands, but he didn’t discount a mid-season swap could occur.
Furthermore, Horner’s mention regarding circuits Perez has thrived at in previous seasons is a clear homage to his excellent record in Baku and Singapore – both circuits he has won at during his stint with Red Bull.
Considering that another extensive break takes place once the chequered flag drops in Singapore, it is viable that Red Bull has pinpointed that period as another optimal moment to reconsider Perez’s position should he slip up again at those venues.
But Red Bull’s problem is that waiting until then could be too late with respect to the growing pressure that McLaren is imposing.
McLaren has outscored Red Bull at all rounds bar one since Lando Norris’ breakthrough win in Miami to bring the gap between the leading two down to 42 points.
Taking into account that McLaren has taken eight points a round out of Red Bull on average across the past nine rounds, the Woking-based squad’s current pace could see it head into the autumn respite within 10 points of its rivals with six events remaining.
At that stage, Red Bull could end up in an even tougher predicament between sticking with the tried-and-tested option in Perez or piling pressure onto a replacement to hit the ground running in a new car in a title fight.
Perez did recover from a similar slump last term, and that might have brought him the time he’s been granted. But that turnaround came in alternative circumstances when Red Bull’s championship was all but guaranteed.
Red Bull is in a proper duel now and needs all components in the team operating at 100 per cent. Perez has shown no signs that he boasts the minerals to rise to the occasion, and there is enough historical evidence to suggest that his current streak isn’t a blip.
Horner has been adamant that Perez with his back against the wall can pull results out of the bag, but this time around, even he is buckling under the building pressure based on his demeanour to the media post-race.
Perez’s stay of execution has dealt a blow to Ricciardo’s long-standing desire to return to the Red Bull seat that he vacated in 2018. The Australian, who won seven races with the Austrian outfit between 2014-2018, has been touted as the most probable replacement should Perez end up ousted.
Ricciardo hasn’t set the world alight in the midfield, but he has recovered since a slow start and shown evident signs that he’s improving back to the dazzling level that made him one of the hottest commodities on the F1 grid under the previous rules cycle.
His outing at Spa-Francorchamps was another assured drive where he outran RB team-mate Yuki Tsunoda in a VCARB 01 car that was not suited to the track’s accentuated demand on high-speed turns.
With 10 fewer points than Tsunoda, who Red Bull has never been enamoured with promoting, has Ricciardo merited a step-up to the parent team based on his results? No.
But his improvement has come at a time when RB has taken a step back relative to the competition with failed car upgrades, and Ricciardo’s recent edge over Tsunoda has not been rewarded with huge point hauls.
All things considered, Ricciardo’s race-winning pedigree and vast experience outline him as the most adept option to slot in.
Let’s not forget, the Red Bull is a unique car to drive, even more so in its current guise where there are obvious limitations which even Verstappen is struggling to overcome.
Verstappen has been candid that Red Bull should be more concerned about its overall competitiveness than Perez’s struggles. However, his team-mate’s woes, which have comprised an average of 3.5 points a round during his ongoing wretched run, have reached a crisis point where Red Bull would have nothing to lose with making a change.
The six-time F1 race winner is a better driver than he has proven in 2024, but the environment he is in is detrimental to both parties. Whereas Perez thrives when a car has understeering tendencies, Ricciardo likes one that is strong on the nose in a similar but slightly less extreme manner to Verstappen.
Providing he could recapture his best version in a Red Bull car – and the test outing last summer which earned him an F1 comeback suggests that would transpire – Ricciardo would be a more accommodating and suitable option than Perez is right now.
Ricciardo is in an unprecedented position where he could either end up stepping up the ladder to Red Bull or be dropped altogether should the group elect to promote reserve Liam Lawson to partner Tsunoda at RB.
The ex-McLaren driver’s entire return to the Red Bull stable has revolved around going back to the senior team, but it has wasted an opportune moment to discover whether Ricciardo could be a feasible solution to a problem that has existed since he departed.
Red Bull’s issues extend past Perez, but he is the Achilles heel which is causing the biggest headache to a dwindling points lead which looks inevitable to vanish the longer the essential driver change goes unmade.
McLaren might have rued squandering numerous opportunities to amass more points in recent races, but Red Bull looks the likelier of the two title contenders to shoot itself in the foot with the latest development.
