Lando Norris came within touching distance of beating Max Verstappen to win Formula 1’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix – but what factors conspired to see McLaren almost topple Red Bull once more in 2024?
McLaren benefitted from the risk-averse decision to introduce upgrades on a Sprint weekend at Miami, with the revised parts inspiring Norris to take his maiden success.
But despite the abundance of promise that the Woking-based squad’s developments showed throughout the weekend, Norris had capitalised on a mid-race Safety Car and a wounded Red Bull to edge out Verstappen.
However, Norris was optimistic that his breakthrough result Stateside would not be a single occurrence, and Red Bull transpired to be vulnerable to the papaya-liveried cars from the outset at the iconic Imola venue.
Verstappen bemoaned balance struggles with his RB20 throughout the opening two practice sessions, to the point he even expressed that things couldn’t get worse.
Those woes continued into Saturday morning as McLaren and Ferrari maintained an edge over Red Bull. But a “deep dive” into the data overnight both at the track and Red Bull’s Milton Keynes base enabled it to mount a turnaround that epitomised a core reason behind its recent impenetrable run.
Along with the choice to utilise a low-downforce configuration rear wing to maximise its top-end speed advantage, Verstappen put in a barnstorming Q3 lap to edge the McLaren pair to pole position, with one-tenth covering the leading three drivers.
The hope that such a tight margin would encourage a tantalising encounter at the front was soon dispelled as Norris, who was the lone McLaren ranger in the fight as Oscar Piastri incurred a three-place grid drop for impeding, was unable to match Verstappen.
Verstappen strode clear in a fashion comparable to the previous season, opening up a commanding eight-second lead, which looked an insurmountable task to close.
That impression heightened as Verstappen continued to control proceedings in the nascent stages of the second stint, while Norris was beginning to come under considerable pressure from Charles Leclerc.
However, Lap 45 marked a turning point. Norris had repelled Leclerc’s advances – helped with the Ferrari cutting across the Variante Alta chicane – and he was starting to cut sizeable inroads into the leading gap.
Having been 7.4 seconds down on the Red Bull on Lap 44, Norris caught the attention when he took a second out of Verstappen.
At that stage, it seemed inevitable that Verstappen would exit cruise control mode and up his pace to respond to Norris’ times.
But radio transmissions between Verstappen and race engineer Gianpiero Lambiase soon made it clear that the Dutchman did not have his usual pace in reserve to unleash.
Norris was on a mission and could sense his second Grand Prix win was on the table. Verstappen, though, managed to eke out enough potential from his Red Bull to cling on, leaving Norris to rue that his seven-tenth shortcoming at the chequered flag meant he needed “one or two more laps”.
Between Verstappen ending up exposed and Norris’ rampant pursuit came two corresponding factors that swung the impetus towards McLaren’s direction.
Verstappen was candid about his troubles post-race, claiming that he almost ended up in a grandstand at one point as he sought to push on when it was like “driving on ice”.
Expanding upon the bizarre circumstances that saw Verstappen unable to replicate his dominant showing in the opening exchanges, Horner revealed that a drop in tyre temperature had been the differentiator.
“On the first stint on the Medium, it felt like we’d got everything under control,” Horner reflected. “Max was able to build up to an eight-second gap. And the car was performing very, very well on the Medium.
“After we changed onto the Hard tyre, the first half of the stint was absolutely fine, but as the gauge wears down on the tyre, temperature becomes crucial, and we just started to lose temperature in the tyre, and with that, the performance started to… We didn’t get as much out of the tyre as Lando.”
Red Bull’s problem could have been mitigated or even averted had it sampled the Hard compound in practice, a choice which Horner conceded was wrong in retrospect.
“I think probably with hindsight, we would have maybe been better running a Hard on Friday, just because we had opted to take two new Hard tyres into the race, and maybe it would have been better to have got the information on the tyre,” Horner professed.
Indeed, the Pirelli tyres had an overriding bearing when it came to dictating how much performance could be unlocked from the respective machines at Imola, as the rubber was even more susceptible to overheating.
Leclerc was caught out as his overtures on Norris and subsequent trip across the grass meant his name exited the equation as he had to accept a somewhat distant third, seven seconds down on the top two runners.
Therefore, as much as the unexpected tension at the end was about Verstappen’s complications in the cockpit, it was also down to Norris managing to raise the bar.
The British driver was on the ragged edge in those final laps and like Verstappen, it was predominantly down to the sensitive behaviour of the rubber, as McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella documented later.
“Today was an interesting race because the tyres were able to operate in a narrow window and before the combination of driver, track characteristics and where you were losing, the tyres created different characteristics from a competitive point of view,” Stella said. “The first stint Max seemed to be in control and we needed to look in the mirrors with Lando.
“Second stint, Lando took care of his tyres at the start of the stint because we saw with the Medium that it was not going to be an easy run to the end on Hard tyres, and also we saw that people that used hard tyres in the first stint, like [Sergio] Perez, were not very brilliant.
“So it was very tactical from this point of view, and I think Lando did a good job for saving tyres for a long part of the second stint and that left him with a good budget towards the end.”
But while Norris has accepted that he adapted his race management upon his change onto the Hard to protect from a potential undercut from Leclerc behind, he has conceded his radio exchange about lacking pace was a legitimate concern.
“As soon as I went on the Hard tyre, I didn’t feel great. I wasn’t comfortable,” Norris stated. ”So I quite quickly asked, ‘where am I struggling?’ And they’re like, ‘oh, they’re just pushing more than you’. But I was asking because I just felt slow and I didn’t feel like I could push a lot more. As soon as I started to push, I felt like I’d oversteer, I’d understeer, I’d lock tyres. It was just the tyres were not in a good window.
“I think it’s clear that as soon as they’re not in the right window, you can’t push. You don’t have the confidence with the car.”
However, the Briton did reveal that his sudden onslaught on Verstappen derived from several alterations he made on his steering wheel to reduce the stress being forced upon the rear tyres earlier in the race.
“I basically changed all my switches on the steering wheel to try and help the rear tyres and to try and kill the front,” Norris explained. “Because I just had too much front at that point. And maybe five, 10 laps later, things started to come back to me.
“So making all these changes and changing the differential and the brake balance and all of those things really allowed me to bring the tyres back into a good window.
“As soon as I got there, I felt confident enough to push,” he continued. “I felt like I could push, it kind of spiralled in the right direction. Just more of a coincidence that it was that timing more than anything. But when Charles was behind me, I didn’t have a lot more than what I had.”
Could Norris have avoided Verstappen getting so far clear in the opening laps to have more time at the end to make a move?
According to Norris, McLaren had set up for cooler race conditions and the warmer temperatures created problems with rear degradation in particular on the MCL38.
“We were expecting it to be a little bit colder today than what it was, so we kind of set up the car more for colder conditions rather than hot,” Norris divulged. “And I think I paid the price in general. So that’s why I had to do so much of an introduction to the tyres and bring them up so gently and look after them.”
He added: “But clearly when it’s hotter and there’s more degradation to the rear tyres, we start to struggle a lot more. And it’s something we know and maybe we could have prepared for a little bit more.”
That admission could transpire to be an Achilles heel for McLaren when F1 visits venues that are notorious for searing heat.
However, two standout drivers pushing each other to the limit as the pack continues to converge bodes well for the remaining rounds to come under this regulation cycle.
Races such as Miami and Imola have proven that Red Bull is vulnerable, with Ferrari and McLaren able to capitalise if the reigning champions are not firing on all cylinders.
But Horner has warned that the previous two venues on the calendar have not been well-suited to Red Bull’s inherent strengths.
With an outlier on the calendar coming next in Monaco, it could take a few more rounds to assess whether McLaren is a genuine contender to Red Bull on a regular basis.
Nevertheless, it provides some promise that the remaining races in 2024 won’t all be Verstappen gallivanting into the distance.
