The damp conditions might have created a more muddied picture than usual at the Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix, but one thing is certain: Red Bull is the team to beat.
A drizzle prior to the second practice hour beginning and a revised rule on wet weather compounds for 2024 saw limited running completed in representative conditions.
But as had been expected heading into the race weekend, Red Bull stormed out the blocks before the rain descended on the track to top the timesheets in first practice.
The figure-of-eight Suzuka circuit constitutes one of the drivers’ favourites on the calendar as it bestows the ultimate gauge of a compliant and efficient racing machine.
Red Bull’s RB20, bolstered with upgrades, epitomises that and Verstappen will be eager to repeat his exploits from September to rebound from his retirement last time out.
The Dutchman produced a resounding response to his defeat in Singapore when the F1 circus rolled around to Japan, dominating from pole to win with 19 seconds in hand.
That acted as a springboard that propelled Verstappen to clean sweep the next eight races until a stuck right rear brake duct denied him a record-equalling 10th last time.
Verstappen was back on the pace at one of his favoured tracks on the calendar as he eased his car to the familiar position at the top with a 1:30.056s from his 18-lap run.
Charles Leclerc had conceded that Ferrari’s four-point deficit to Red Bull was not emblematic of their respective pace levels and believes the champions are out of reach.
“I’ll do my best [to fight for pole]. This is the target for sure. But in order to do so we need to make sure that we are prepared in the best possible way for tomorrow,” he said.
“And at the moment, I still feel like we are lacking a little bit of pace to go and challenge for pole position because Red Bull seems strong, and especially Max until now.
“There’s still quite a bit of work to do. But if there’s a special lap to be done, I hope I’ll be the one to do it.”
However, Leclerc’s team-mate and Australian Grand Prix victor Carlos Sainz was more enthusiastic about Ferrari’s chances to at least prevent another one-horse race.
The Spaniard ended up as the closest non-Red Bull driver during first practice and cited his three-tenth margin to Verstappen as demonstrative of the marque’s gains.
“Honestly, it’s a bit closer to the Red Bulls than I anticipated or expected, so positive signs in terms of progress made from five months ago to now,” Sainz expressed.
“It’s still obviously FP1. You don’t know what fuel loads and engine modes they’re running.
“Obviously last year we were eight-tenths off in quali, and here to be two-tenths off in FP1 was a good feeling or a good starting base. But they’re going to be difficult to beat.”
Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko is mindful that Ferrari could be a threat in the long runs once again, despite suspicions it ran with higher engine modes and less fuel.
“That Ferrari is pretty quick. But we hope, or we are sure, that they ran less fuel and a higher engine mode today than what we did,” the Austrian discussed.
“But they are still very tight to us. The long run was basically only three laps, but still those three laps from Leclerc were quite impressive.
“We have quite a big upgrade and for the first outing there wasn’t time for fine tuning.
“I hope tomorrow we have some dry sessions, so we can really get the maximum out of the car. Hopefully we are ahead, in qualifying for sure, but also in the race.”
This marks a vital race weekend for Sergio Perez, who suffered a comprehensive defeat to Verstappen last term at this venue and retired on two separate occasions.
However, the Mexican, who remains confident about securing a contract extension, seems more competitive this time around and was under two-tenths adrift in FP1.
With Suzuka not representing the easiest track on the calendar to overtake and turbulence behind another car becoming an increased issue, grid position will be vital.
Maximising the potential of the car over a single lap has never been Perez’s strong suit and the six-time F1 race winner hasn’t qualified on the front row so far this term.
Nevertheless, Ferrari has encountered trouble with generating sufficient temperature in the rubber over one lap and that could hinder its hopes amid cooler temperatures.
Having been the pacesetting driver in practice, Charles Leclerc was bemused with the balance of his SF-24 when crunch time came and ended up behind Lando Norris.
That compromised his win chances come the race and having exceeded its own expectations at the Albert Park Circuit, McLaren again stands to capitalise on mishaps.
The Woking-based side’s might through high-speed sweeps has been exemplified since its remarkable turnaround last term and guided it to a double podium at Suzuka.
But Norris had been cautious heading into the weekend that the improved high-speed cornering Ferrari’s revamped car upholds would make it a taller order for McLaren.
Nevertheless, both drivers were enthused with the potential shown by McLaren’s MCL38 car, with Oscar Piastri reassured that the British outfit stands to be in the fight.
McLaren Team Principal Andrea Stella has highlighted that the ambition is to consolidate its grasp on third place amid Mercedes; expectations of a difficult weekend.
Mercedes strung together a competitive enough showing, which left Hamilton to describe FP1 as his “best session” to date in his revised capricious W15 challenger.
The seven-time champion has noted that he will avoid making seismic changes to his set-up to ensure that he doesn’t deviate from the positive baseline he unearthed.
But his slump from FP3 onwards in Australia showed that Hamilton could be powerless in the circumstance the conditions knock Mercedes out its operating window.
Meanwhile, Aston Martin appears another relative unknown among the top order, with Lance Stroll being the chosen driver to run with the new updates it has brought.
Fernando Alonso’s AMR24 will be fitted with the improvements overnight, which have been fast-tracked as the British marque endeavours to retain the Spaniard star.
Behind the usual leading five teams, the rebranded RB squad has emerged as the outfit that has been the most capable on pace terms to disrupt the order at the top.
Yuki Tsunoda has advanced to Q3 in two of the first three rounds and converted eighth on the grid into a seventh-place finish in an attritional grand prix a fortnight ago.
The Japanese racer has never classified higher than 12th at his home venue but arrives riding the crest of a wave as his stock on the F1 driver market continues to rise.
However, Daniel Ricciardo experienced another setback in his latest attempt to recover from his troubling start to the season as he completed a pitiful total of nine laps.
The Australian was on the pit wall during FP1 as Ayumu Iwasa completed a rookie outing at the wheel of the VCARB 01, with the later precipitation thwarting Ricciardo.
Elsewhere, Haas has tended to dampen expectations about its prospects but has amassed points in the last two rounds, including a double top-10 finish in Australia.
Likewise, Williams is another team up against it with Logan Sargeant’s crash in FP1 ensuring that the Grove-based squad’s drivers will need to be treading on eggshells.
The American driver was fortunate to not damage his chassis and miss consecutive races, but he will have to revert to older specification parts due to spare shortages.
Sargeant was adamant that his latest mistake was not a repeat of the errors he made in his rookie F1 season, but he will have to shelve memories of the shunt tomorrow.
Alpine has brought initial steps towards cutting the excess weight it has carried since pre-season this weekend and Esteban Ocon put his A524 on the brink of the top 10.
The Frenchman reckoned that a points return was possible in Australia without an unscheduled pit stop to remove a visor tear off from a brake duct in the latter exchanges.
But the seven-tenth gap to 10th place Norris in FP1 demonstrated that the likes of Alpine and the ever-improving Sauber team are reliant on retirements to land rewards.
With shortened data to depend on and colder track temperatures expected for the remainder of the Suzuka weekend, there might be more openings to exploit opportunities.
