Carlos Sainz thrived amid opportunistic circumstances to take the spoils at the Australian Grand Prix at a pivotal time with his Formula 1 future in 2025 undecided. But while it has been touted that he could be on both Mercedes and Red Bull’s radar, a move to Aston Martin could be the Spaniard’s wisest bet.
Sainz’s latest success in the top flight must have provided a bittersweet feeling that Ferrari’s resurgence under the stewardship of Frederic Vasseur is coming right when he is about to exit the team at the end of 2024.
However, Ferrari’s decision to not renew Sainz’s contract is not an indictment that the Spaniard is not good enough for a team with aspirations of winning titles, but rather that Sainz became collateral damage when a seven-time champion became available.
But as one door shuts, another opens, and Sainz will not be short of suitors at a time when his stock could not be much higher.
It is no coincidence that on the two occasions when Red Bull has faltered since the start of last season Sainz has been the driver on hand to capitalise, in Singapore back in October and Australia last weekend.
Despite having been sidelined from the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix when he was diagnosed with appendicitis and not being at his optimum fitness level upon his return from an operation, Sainz was determined to recover in time for F1’s annual trip Down Under, and he was rewarded with a Ferrari SF-24 car that had the pace to disturb the natural order and threaten Red Bull’s streak.
Although Charles Leclerc proved to be the pacesetting Ferrari driver through practice, the recovering Sainz read the evolving track conditions better and qualified on the front row, three places ahead of his team-mate.
It remains undetermined whether a functioning Red Bull car in the hands of the ever-impenetrable Verstappen would have prevented Ferrari from landing a record-extending 14th Australian GP win, but that absolves nothing from Sainz’s stellar efforts.
Sainz put his car in the position to take advantage when the reigning champions sustained a rare slip-up, beating both Sergio Perez’s second Red Bull and also Leclerc. While Leclerc slumped to fifth – promoted to fourth when Perez was penalised – and had his race compromised as a result of the strategic call needed to overhaul Lando Norris, Sainz could run the optimum stint lengths and sauntered home unopposed.
His speed has never been in question from the moment he embarked upon his F1 debut in 2015, but it’s a testament to Sainz’s mental strength that he has been able to dig deep amid challenging setbacks to produce his strongest form despite being told his future lies outside of his current employer.
There is no doubt that Sainz will return to the grid next season, but his recent showings are enhancing the notion that his presence should remain towards the front of the grid.
Sainz has been paired against an impressive list of names ranging from Verstappen to Leclerc and he has never been disgraced against either driver in equal equipment.
The margins he has trailed Leclerc at Ferrari have been slim, with Sainz having shown that he has the rounded skillset and mindset to cope with the demands of racing for F1’s most famed outfit. Sainz has earned a reputation as one of the most dedicated and hardworking individuals on the roster, with his astute and proactive approach to dealing with the high-stake pressures posed inside the confines of a single-seater cockpit outlining him as a valuable acquisition to the other teams up and down the F1 pitlane.
Sainz Sr’s long-lasting connections with Audi have seen his son linked as a headline option to front the German automotive giant’s budding ambitions when it takes over the Sauber squad once all-new technical regulations transcend the sport in 2026.
However, Audi is taking on a persistent underachieving Hinwil-based group that has struggled to be slick in the pit lane, let alone a competitive entity out on the race track.
Banking on the Audi venture becoming a success would be insulting to the calibre of driver Sainz has become. He has earned the right to be fighting for regular wins, not taking on a gamble that could omit him from the conversation for future top-line drives.
Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner was asked about the prospect of Sainz reuniting with the reigning champions, whom he graduated through to F1 with its backing.
However, providing rumours that Verstappen could seek to leave Red Bull due to the ongoing tension in its ranks don’t materialise, Sainz would be unwise to go into an environment that revolves around the Dutchman and one that is not guaranteed to dominate into F1’s next-generation era.
Meanwhile, Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko, who co-operates on deciding upon both the senior team and sister RB side’s driver line-ups, has spoken about the uncomfortable situation that emanated when Sainz and Verstappen were paired at Toro Rosso.
Marko did not close the door on Sainz being considered, but the Austrian stalwart did hint that Perez is their preferred choice. The Mexican represents the convenient option and his continued presence would ensure Verstappen does not become unsettled enough to contemplate his own position.
With Hamilton opting to move to Ferrari at Sainz’s expense, a seat has become vacant at Mercedes and could see a straight swap transpire. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff had suggested that Sainz is among a four-driver shortlist to partner next to George Russell.
However, Wolff, 52, has been adamant that Verstappen is his top target in the event that the reigning champion makes it known that his prized services would then be attainable.
But while that appears a hopeless pipe dream rather than a realistic proposition, Wolff has mentioned that Andrea Kimi Antonelli could be considered for immediate promotion to the senior squad, suggesting that the arrival of another name would serve as a stopgap for Mercedes’ Italian protege.
That prospect alone should be enough to deter Sainz from positioning himself to land a Mercedes drive, along with the evident struggles the marque has continued to endure with the current ground effect cars.
Despite addressing the “spiteful” rear-end characteristics of its recalcitrant predecessors, Mercedes has been startled by the inconsistent nature of its W15 car. The eight-time Constructors’ champions continue to be unstuck under the latest regulations and appear no closer to arresting its decline.
With a return to McLaren unrealistic as Norris and Australian hotshot Oscar Piastri are locked down long-term, Aston Martin is the sole remaining team in the front-running pack with incomplete 2025 driver plans.
But while links to Aston Martin have been more muted than Mercedes and Red Bull, the ambitious British outfit could be the most suitable place for Sainz to end up next year.
Fernando Alonso has entered the final term of his current contract and has conceded that he must weigh up whether he would be willing to commit to further seasons in F1.
However, the two-time World Champion is a cunning operator and the comments that he could drive at his current level until his late 40s was no doubt made as a call to Red Bull that he would be available to negotiate the move which could yield an elusive third title.
Regardless of whether Alonso extends his stint with the illustrious marque, Aston Martin would be unwise to pass up on the chance to sign a driver like Sainz when he’s free. Irrespective of whether he comes in to replace Lance Stroll, who has continued to be out of his depth at the front, to form an all-Spanish line-up with Alonso or to take the place his childhood hero fills, Sainz would represent the latest smart addition Lawrence Stroll makes to bolster Aston Martin’s ranks.
Since acquiring the Silverstone-based squad in 2018, the Canadian billionaire has been determined to transcend the perennial underdog team that operated on a shoestring budget into a team that can rub shoulders with F1’s most celebrated outfits.
Stroll Sr has not shied from making moves that could upset the established entries, which has included an aggressive recruitment drive that has poached the likes of designer Dan Fallows from Red Bull.
Now, it’s been reported that Stroll has presented a lucrative multi-million proposal to Red Bull’s Chief Technical Officer Adrian Newey, who has a combined 25 Drivers and Constructors’ Championships to his name.
To accommodate the widespread engineering talent it has recruited over past seasons, Aston Martin is putting all the building blocks in place from an infrastructure perspective to take those remaining steps. The team moved into its new state-of-the-art headquarters last summer, with further improvements – including a new simulator – to come online.
Other notable automotive names have entered with similar aspirations but have been naive in their approach to obtaining success. But that is not applicable to Aston Martin. Stroll Sr has done his due diligence when it comes to assembling an operation that has the tools to replicate what Red Bull has managed since it burst onto the scene.
From his point of view, securing a works batch of engines was a pivotal, game-changing move. That has been achieved through an agreement with Honda from 2026 onwards, meaning Aston Martin will not be reliant on purchasing the rear suspension and gearbox from current supplier Mercedes.
Sainz might not have the World Champion pedigree Stroll’s previous driver hires had in Sebastian Vettel and then Alonso, but the two parties are at a shared point when it comes to chasing the ultimate prize in F1.
Aston Martin had emerged as the surprise closest competitor to Red Bull at the start of last season, with Alonso logging six podiums across the first eight rounds. Although the team slipped back and has been unable to replicate those exploits, Aston Martin has remained in that leading pack at the start of 2024 and remains on an ascending path.
On the proviso that Alonso departs, Sainz would be capable of stepping into a team leader role. The Spaniard turns 30 in September but has gathered nine seasons’ worth of F1 experience with four teams. His sporadic switching is not a sign that he hasn’t settled, but rather that he’s been in the right place at the wrong times in his career.
Regardless, Sainz has adapted in seamless fashion on each of those occasions, none more so than at Ferrari where he came into an environment which Leclerc had made his own as a graduate of its own programme.
That would arrest doubts that he would need a period to get up to speed wherever he ends up in 2025, standing him in good stead to hit the ground running ahead of the regulation overhaul the following season that will present various sides like Aston Martin with a chance to make substantial inroads.
While Alonso might not have the patience to bank on that coming to fruition, Sainz is approaching his peak period as a racing driver and still has much more to offer. His age and experience would be an adept fit into what Aston Martin is building towards.
With Aston Martin continuing to mature as it gains experience as a front-running F1 fixture and the anticipation of a Honda engine partnership to come, Sainz would be well-advised to view spearheading the Silverstone squad’s charge in the mid-to-long term as the best avenue for his post-Ferrari endeavours.
However, that will also be dependent on the relative interest and subsequent approaches made by teams who remain infatuated with postponing their decisions until Verstappen’s future is resolved. But with the Dutchman’s current contractual situation meaning there’s no obligation for a definitive statement to be made regarding his prospects, the likes of Aston Martin would be prudent to secure one of F1’s other notable commodities in Sainz.
