The announcement that Toto Wolff has extended his tenure as Mercedes Team Principal through 2026 came with a declaration that it’s on the right track with its W15 car. But the side’s hopes of reviving its title ambitions will depend on more than just a competitive car.
Mercedes obliterated the competition upon F1’s switch to V6 turbo-hybrid engines in 2014, storming to an unprecedented eight consecutive Constructors’ Championships.
However, the German marque has been unable to replicate that success since an overhaul to the regulations in 2022, logging only one victory across the last two seasons.
The root of Mercedes’ troubles last term could be traced back to retaining the ‘zeropod’ concept that it had formulated at the beginning of the latest ground effect era, with the team misguided by securing a 1-2 race finish at the 2022 Brazilian Grand Prix.
That victory, led by George Russell, convinced Mercedes that its bold interpretation of the regulations could still become a championship-winning one with refinements to its recalcitrant W13 creation.
However, pre-season testing raised alarm bells that continued to ring into the opening qualifying session in Bahrain, which prompted Wolff to admit that the team would have to reverse its ill-fated winter decision.
The Monaco Grand Prix in May brought the introduction of a mid-season concept change featuring a more conventional bodywork configuration which converted Mercedes to the downwash sidepod solution pioneered by defending champions Red Bull.
While it sparked an improvement that delivered second place in the Constructors’ Championship at the expense of Ferrari – another team that had been hindered by pursuing the wrong development direction – Mercedes remained restricted by the architecture of its launch-spec W14 chassis.
The eventual 451-point deficit to the top outlined the immense challenge facing Mercedes under a stable set of regulations against a Red Bull squad that ceased development early on its RB19 machine.
Nevertheless, there is a renewed air of optimism also surrounding Mercedes. The team is pressing ahead with a revamped car philosophy for 2024, which is being overseen by James Allison after he returned to the Technical Director position in April last year.
Having touted Mercedes had positive things in the pipeline, Wolff divulged that feedback from the simulator noted that the W15 “feels like a car for the first time in two years”.
Wolff admitted that Mercedes had treated the latest technical rules “conservatively”. The marque must now prove that the harsh lessons from the past two seasons have been applied to construct a car that is both more competitive and more consistent to form a base that can stand to topple Red Bull during the remaining two years of this cycle.
Mercedes has highlighted that it must keep an eye on the upcoming regulation overhaul, which will usher widespread changes to the cars from 2026. With this season set to provide the foundation for their 2025 successors as engineers divert focus towards the next generation, there will be even more emphasis riding on this year.
However, Russell boasted optimism at the end of last season, citing that the side’s third attempt at the latest ground effect cars has comprised more background research than its capriciously behaving W14 predecessor.
The Briton expressed that he was “more confident going into the break” as Mercedes has been “working on the concept for a long time and there’s been so much due diligence gone into that concept” compared to 2023.
But it won’t be only Mercedes aiming to reel in the all-conquering Red Bull setup. Ferrari, who denied the Austrian outfit a historic clean sweep last season, ended strongly.
Meanwhile, McLaren recovered from a torrid start with an underdeveloped MCL60 car to become a regular podium scorer from the summer. More pertinently, the Woking-based squad’s upgrades correlated with the numbers seen in the wind tunnel, meaning it heads into 2024 building from a position of strength with a concept that it understands.
Mercedes, on the other hand, has predominantly spent the past two years solving existing issues rather than being able to focus outright on unlocking performance.
Both Russell and Lewis Hamilton complained about the unpredictable nature of a car that contributed to volatile swings of pace between the two on a given weekend.
However, Allison believes the engineers have been successful in the endeavour to eradicate the “spiteful” rear-end traits that were embedded in the W14. A more benign and compliant car will automatically elevate Mercedes’ level – imperative to ensuring that it establishes itself as clear second best before turning its attention towards Red Bull.
All the signs indicate that Mercedes will be a resurgent contender in 2024, but a return to battling for championship honours won’t be entirely conditional on the pace of the car.
Even during its most successful period, Mercedes was prone to throwing away the odd race win. Ultimately the crushing nature of its dominance disguised weaknesses that have been exposed since its form waned.
One of the most glaring areas for improvement resides in pit stops: a crucial component in any elite side’s structure. Mercedes has been unable to move with the times and service its drivers with the seamless, sub-two-second tyre changes that have now become expected.
Red Bull has led the way over the rest both on the track and in the pit lane, with the squad having scooped the DHL Fastest Pit Stop Award for six seasons running now.
Elsewhere, McLaren broke the world record for the fastest stop in F1 with a 1.98s time. Those two, along with Ferrari, topped the charts, registering pit stops less than 2.5s at least 34% of the time across 2023.
Mercedes, however, stood at 1.69% and languished seventh in the DHL standings. Wolff has identified pit stops as one further sector Mercedes must strive to address ahead of 2024, and reports have suggested the team has invested more in pit equipment.
That recognition is vital in a sport where the incremental details are equally important, particularly when rivals can’t afford to give away fractions of a second up against an impenetrable operation such as Red Bulls.
Races can be won and lost in the pits – and would become a decisive weapon that Mercedes could utilise with two balanced drivers in a direct fight with Red Bull, who can only count on Max Verstappen amid Sergio Perez’s perennial qualifying troubles.
However, boasting two evenly matched competitors also increases the probability of clashes and there were a handful of times when Hamilton and Russell have touched.
The standout in Qatar – which eliminated Hamilton and sent Russell tumbling down the order – was unavoidable on the team’s side, but Mercedes could have done more to prevent the near-miss that preceded that in Japan and the misunderstanding in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix.
Russell has claimed that such episodes are “normal” when two drivers are closely scaled in performance; however, those are the sort of incidents that must be avoided in the crunch of a title fight when the opposition is an unflappable machine like Verstappen, who leaves little margin for his competitors.
But while the drivers are directly responsible for their actions behind the wheel, Mercedes must be prepared to handle the dynamic between the pair better than it has done.
Russell can match Hamilton stride for stride over a single lap, but last term proved the more experienced Brit has the edge when it comes to prolonging that pace in the races.
The seven-time champion, who has turned 39 ahead of the upcoming campaign, appears more committed than ever and the 2023 season reaffirmed that he remains Mercedes’ best chance of usurping Red Bull and Verstappen in the heat of a title contest.
But that will only be possible if Mercedes are prepared to adopt a ruthless approach and support Hamilton at the expense of Russell if such a situation requires attention this year.
Mercedes demonstrated that it was willing to move Valtteri Bottas aside to aid Hamilton, but the Finn was on singular-year contracts and perpetually viewed as a placeholder. Russell, though, has been associated with the manufacturer since 2017 and has been branded the long-term future of the team.
The decision to not issue team orders in the interest of equal opportunities during the closing stages in Singapore reflected that and denied a charging Hamilton victory.
With Hamilton and Russell signed up until the end of 2025, managing that relationship will provide one additional test of Wolff’s leadership qualities as he bids to ensure its drought is a blip and not the end of an era.
Having inherited a racing organisation on the rise, the Austrian, 52, has never encountered a predicament such as this. But reversing it would be as impressive as the multitude of achievements that have come before now.
Wolff has promised that there will be a “very different” Mercedes on show in 2024. But, as ever, the proof will be in the pudding – or in F1 terms, on that timing tower come Bahrain.
