Lando Norris recently expressed that McLaren has what it takes to make a step forward this season similar to the one that took Ferrari from the midfield pack to race-winning potential between 2021 and 2022 – but just how feasible is the British driver’s claim?
Ferrari and McLaren were embroiled in a close scrap for third place in the Constructors’ championship in 2021, with the former coming out on top in the end.
While the Italian stable would then make another sizeable step forward to elevate themselves into title contention throughout the early stages of last year, McLaren was left lagging behind their long-time rivals, looking over their shoulders at the renewed threat from Alpine for honours at the top of the midfield.
Both teams would be unsuccessful in their ventures as Ferrari was blown away by Red Bull and McLaren was pipped by the Anglo-French side. Nevertheless, it was a much more positive season for Ferrari, whose tally of four wins across the board in 2022 was more than McLaren has achieved in the last decade.
Their contrasting fortunes demonstrated where both teams have headed over the last 12 months; whereas McLaren continues to be stuck in a period of stagnation, Ferrari is a team on the up, despite another championship challenge coming undone in calamitous fashion.
Following Ferrari’s relegation to the midfield, after the FIA’s decision to make a settlement with the team on its allegedly illegal 2019 powertrain design, McLaren ended up 71 points ahead of the Prancing Horse team in 2020.
Two years later and Ferrari reversed that huge margin in their favour, finishing three places and a tremendous 395 points ahead of the papaya-liveried squad in the opening year of the latest rules set.
Although McLaren regressed to the point where Norris scored 38 points less than his 2021 total and scooped three fewer podiums, their star driver provided arguably the only continuity for the team across the entirety of a trying 2022 campaign by continuing to put in stellar performances to end the year as the highest-placed midfield driver in the standings.
Understandably, a world-class talent like Norris has an unwavering ambition to win and he is surely capable of such feats with the right machinery. Unlike similar drivers of his generation, the Brit is yet to be equipped with a package that can consistently compete at the sharp end, with Norris rightfully believing he has already proven he belongs amongst the finest in F1.
Having witnessed the progress Ferrari made last year in aiding former his former team-mate, Carlos Sainz, to his maiden victory, Norris has challenged the engineers working on McLaren’s 2023 challenger to make similar advances over the winter period.
“That’s achievable,” Norris responded in an interview with Motorsport.com when asked if McLaren could replicate Ferrari’s gains.
“Going from where they were [in 2021], from almost getting beat by us, to going to where they are getting wins, fighting for podiums every single weekend… That’s what we need to be aiming for.”
On paper, it appears a reasonable request has been made by a driver desperate to compete at the sharp end. However, a deeper delve into the statistics showcases the uphill task McLaren has in following through on Norris’s ambitious wish.
Ferrari and McLaren were equally competitive throughout 2021 to the point where the two were only separated by a tenth-of-a-second on average pace in the former’s favour.
But while Ferrari reduced a 0.8-second average gap down to a mere two-tenths last season – a gap that was slightly exasperated by Red Bull’s domination across the second half of the year – McLaren’s deficit to the front grew from 0.9s up to 1.6s following the reset to the technical regulations.
Norris’s qualifying exploits saw him out-qualify a Mercedes car on 13 occasions. However, only five times did this translate to a race finish above either of the Silver Arrows, who themselves were a reasonably large six-tenths away from Red Bull’s championship-winning pace on average.
Such timing data doesn’t count for factors such as traffic and alternate strategies, but, as a rough baseline, it can be taken as an accurate portrayal of the respective pace shown throughout the year.
While Norris has raised confidence and set targets high, it’s preposterously hard to foresee McLaren closing a deficit of over a second-and-a-half in only one winter – for many reasons.
Despite the introduction of a cost cap placing every team on the grid on a largely equal financial footing, the elite teams still retain one huge advantage over the rest at present.
The quality of infrastructure remains a sticking point for many sides looking to close the deficit to the leading triumvirate in the sport, with Aston Martin in the process of building a completely new factory alongside McLaren making extensive renovations to their Woking base.
Such a vast improvement to bring their facilities more in line with the big hitters in the sport was a pivotal step and one that was required if McLaren are to return to a position where they compete for the highest prizes the sport can offer again.
However, the wait comes at a substantial cost. As has been shown by the past few seasons, there is a current ceiling on McLaren’s potential and that has been echoed by the team’s CEO, Zak Brown, who recently underlined it won’t realistically be in a position to win until at least 2025.
The pinpointing of that exact year from one of the squad’s senior personnel is when McLaren’s new wind tunnel is set to come online in time for the full construction of one of its cars for the first time.
Additionally, the caveat of stability in the regulations is a huge contrast to the situation Ferrari was in last winter and the position McLaren is encountering now – something that hasn’t been lost on Norris.
“They’ve obviously had, not the luck, but they’ve maximised a new era, a new rules set for Formula 1 with new cars, which has allowed them to make a bigger jump than ever.
“But there’s still plenty of opportunities for us to achieve something like that. And that’s where we need to be setting our goals for,” the six-time podium scorer suggested.
For all the objections to Norris’s comments, there can be some substance to his claims that McLaren can at least adopt better use of their facilities and make a step forward.
Following testing in Barcelona last year, it genuinely appeared that McLaren had the fourth-fastest car and a good baseline to build from at the start of the latest regulation cycle.
While teething brake duct problems in Bahrain would hinder their progress and witnessed neither of its drivers reach Q3 in the opening round, McLaren was able to develop their way out of that obstacle to end up within a tenth of the best midfield-running side.
That promising progression from a difficult position should stand them in good stead to overcome the problems that stifled their early promise 12 months ago.
But, despite stability in the regulations and the clear room for improvement down at McLaren, the infancy of the regulations and the porpoising phenomenon that caught everybody by surprise means there is still a wide berth for the front-running teams to make further gains and perhaps less grid convergence than many expect.
Furthermore, at the launch of their 2023 challenger, the MCL60, new McLaren Team Principal, Andrea Stella, worryingly confirmed the group was “not entirely happy” with the launch-spec version of the car, stating upgrades will be required in the opening rounds to address the weaknesses the engineers have already spotted.
There will continue to be several problems facing the former world champions as they plot their elongated route back to the top of the sport and it’s hard to foresee any constructor disrupting the big three’s dominance in 2023 – but even more so for McLaren to be the one that does it.
Unfortunately for Norris, his chance at contesting an F1 World Championship across the next nine months appears a forlorn opportunity, no matter how extraordinarily well the established British talent continues to perform in papaya colours.
