The destination of the Drivers’ Championship has been decided early for the second successive season and for a fifth time it will be heading to Lewis Hamilton’s burgeoning trophy cabinet. But there are still two Grands Prix left to run in Brazil and Abu Dhabi and, other than the honour of winning a race, there’s still a few matters left to decide.
Can Mercedes make it five on the bounce?
Hamilton’s title celebrations were tempered by the knowledge that Mercedes had suffered at the Mexican Grand Prix – and is not yet assured of this year’s Constructors’ Championship. Mercedes has swept up in the hybrid era but statistically this has been its weakest campaign, challenged more regularly by Ferrari and Red Bull, though it still holds a commanding position. Mercedes is 55 points to the good over Ferrari, with 86 up for grabs, and thus the Italian marque rival must out-score the Silver Arrows by 13 points in Brazil to even keep the fight alive heading to Abu Dhabi. Should Mercedes clinch the Constructors’ crown it would be its fifth on the bounce, the second longest streak in history, behind Ferrari’s 1999-2004 sweep.
Can Hamilton win a race as champion?
Hamilton has won 71 Grands Prix in history but has never triumphed in the wake of clinching a title early. In 2015 he finished runner-up to Nico Rosberg at the final three races, while last year crashed in qualifying at Interlagos – going on to recover to fourth – and then placed second to Valtteri Bottas in Abu Dhabi. Hamilton admitted at the end of last year that he wasn’t at 100 per cent of his capability after clinching the title, an understandable approach considering the effort put into a championship campaign. But with Mercedes still pushing for the Constructors’ crown and more records to chase, 2018 seems as good a time as any to keep on winning.
Or can Bottas finally get the win?
Valtteri Bottas has not had a good 2018 season, but he has been desperately unlucky to miss out on the top step. No-one has finished runner-up seven times in the space of a single season without taking a win, and had Lady Luck shone a little (or a lot) brighter on Bottas then he could easily have four victories to his name. The image of Bottas slumped against the Baku barriers adjacent to his punctured Mercedes heartbreakingly summarises his campaign. And, with hindsight, the team orders swap in Russia proved unnecessary – even if it was, at the time, eminently sensible. Bottas was second in Brazil last year and won in Abu Dhabi. A repeat would be very welcome as he strives to avoid becoming the first win-less Mercedes driver since 2012.
Who will get a trip to St. Petersburg?
Under FIA rules the top three in the standings must attend the Prize Giving ceremony, which this year will take place in Russian city St. Petersburg in early December. Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel have already had their tickets booked, but the third-placed driver is still up for grabs, not that any of the three candidates are likely to be fussed. Kimi Raikkonen (surely the least bothered about a flying visit to Russia) is on 236, Bottas on 227, with the rejuvenated and in-form Max Verstappen on 216. Whoever finishes in the position will at least receive a trophy in Russia – albeit one unlikely to feature hugely highly in their respective cabinets.
Will Ricciardo’s luck change?
Daniel Ricciardo has had just one uncompromised Grand Prix weekend since the summer break. He was caught up in the Turn 1 clash in Belgium, had mechanical failures in Italy, the US and Mexico, started from the back in Russia, and was forced out of Q2 in Japan when his RB14 failed. Little wonder that Mexico was the straw that broke the Honey Badger’s back. Ricciardo understandably reined in his post-race comments and is out to cap his Red Bull career on a high. He has never gone well at Interlagos but a podium finish for the first time since Monaco would be a welcome reward.
Will Hulkenberg seal F1’s Class B fight?
Nico Hulkenberg has taken six 'wins' in the midfield battle this year – more than any other driver – and he and Renault have recovered from a post-summer dip to open a buffer in the fight for best of the rest. It’s not out of the question that Sergio Perez could still overhaul the German, but a 12-point turnaround across two Grands Prix is an improbable proposition. For Hulkenberg, finishing clear of his opponents in the midfield battle would surely send a message to 2019 team-mate Ricciardo that he means business.
Who will be fourth-coming?
The year-long scrap for fourth in the Constructors’ Championship has surely now been settled in Renault’s favour, given its recent upturn in results, Haas’ problems, and the American team losing its Monza appeal. The gap is now a surely insurmountable 30 points. Of other interest is whether Force India can take a net fourth by combining the two tallies from its pre- and post-summer guises. Perez has indicated that this is the team’s target, though it is also trying to breach a (real) 15-point deficit it holds to McLaren in the fight for sixth. The closest battle is for eighth – Sauber has moved on to 36 points to overhaul Toro Rosso, on 33.
Can Alonso finish with a flourish?
For a driver of Alonso’s calibre to end his Formula 1 career scrapping to make it into Q2 and getting caught up in other people’s accidents is borderline farcical, but sport is not a fairy tale, and Alonso’s 300 Grand Prix, 17-year stay is likely to end with a whimper. McLaren’s chronic underachievement has been a deciding factor but at the last two races Alonso has been eliminated in the wake of damage or picking up debris. There is not going to be a magical goodbye, but for Alonso to finish with a (relative) flourish, and not with a broken MCL33 by the side of the track, would be a more fitting farewell.
