Daniel Ricciardo is approaching a potential career crossroads that could well define his position within the Formula 1 record books. The six-time race winner is out of contract at the end of the year and there are three logical destinations, should he wish to pursue them, and assuming each respective party is interested in his services.
Ricciardo knows that his next contract is crucial if he is to realise his ambition of becoming World Champion. Whole careers and statistical legacies have hinged on making the right move at the right time, undertaking an educated guess about future form, or simply following the heart – and sometimes the chequebook. His opponents can offer contrasting views on the success of moves. It has been 12 years since Fernando Alonso won a title, a testament to the unfortunate timings of his team switches, some of which were more enforced than others. Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, pinned his hopes on Mercedes mastering the impending hybrid era when he joined for 2013, but even he surely could not have envisaged the move being such a success. 40 wins and three titles in the period in which Alonso has mounted the podium just twice acutely demonstrates the importance of judging a career move.
Ricciardo is also the man of the moment, a position not often the case through the second half of 2017, when he was regularly adrift of Max Verstappen, and frustratingly hamstrung by power unit woes. Ricciardo’s overtaking masterclass in China, contrasted with Verstappen’s clumsily impatient approach, was a well-timed reminder of his ability – making his 2019 decision all the more tantalising, with ramifications elsewhere.
Better the devil you know?
When Red Bull announced Verstappen’s contract extension through 2020 last year it raised a few eyebrows, demonstrating the Dutchman’s faith in the team, while also prompting Ricciardo to seek some assurances over his place within the operation. It is no secret that Verstappen is Red Bull’s golden egg – and F1’s too, for that matter. But Ricciardo is a vital cog in the Red Bull machine, his (currently amicable) relationship with Verstappen pushing the other to new levels, and the Australian is a hugely marketable asset for a team whose parent company is fundamentally a marketing organisation. Ricciardo is well loved by Red Bull, and vice versa, with the relationship stretching back to his nascent single-seater days, the company backing his path to F1 and handing him promotions to Toro Rosso and then the senior team in 2014. The Ricciardo/Red Bull partnership has delivered some staggering highs, and also recovered from some bitter lows, none more so than his agonising pit-stop-inflicted defeat in Monaco two years ago. However, the underlying theme has been one of playing the underdog. Ricciardo’s rise through the ranks coincided with Red Bull’s capture of the Formula 1 titles, but he slotted into Mark Webber’s shoes just as the hybrid era propelled Mercedes to the front, where they have remained since, dominant from 2014-16, quickest still last year. Red Bull has fallen short but while some of its own chassis woes have compromised matters (in 2015 and early 2017), it has been Renault’s deficiencies that have been the standout frustration, both in terms of pure pace and reliability setbacks. It wasn’t lost on Ricciardo that his China victory came 24 hours after a power unit change inflicted by a turbo failure, which in turn occurred a week after an Energy Store issue truncated his Bahrain GP after mere minutes. Ricciardo has outlined that the Red Bull/Renault package must regularly be able to contend for wins to convince him to stay – but there is also the caveat that a switch to Honda remains a possibility, the Japanese marque’s 2019 prospects being examined by sister team Toro Rosso. It is currently a case of known unknowns and unknown unknowns. It is why the next handful of events are so crucial. There is also the matter of whether Ricciardo wishes to embrace a new challenge outside of the Red Bull umbrella…
Into the fire?
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Reigniting his 2014 rivalry with Sebastian Vettel would be box office for Formula 1, providing Vettel with a chance to right wrongs, and for Ricciardo to reinforce his position among the front-runners. Ferrari has Vettel tied down through 2020 but the identity of his team-mate for next year is uncertain. Kimi Raikkonen is performing well of late and remains rapid when the car is suited to his need for a reliable front-end, the consistency of the SF71-H giving him a positive feeling. But he would also be 40 by the end of 2019, and chairman Sergio Marchionne has so far been less than warm towards the Finn. Promoting reigning F2 champion and current Sauber youngster Charles Leclerc would represent a gamble, and a departure from the relative conservatism adopted by Ferrari. Ferrari has also never been moved to prise away any of the current midfielders and regard them as an upgrade on Raikkonen. Consequently, should Raikkonen be deemed surplus to requirements, and Leclerc too raw, then Ricciardo is the obvious candidate. For Ricciardo, the lustre of Ferrari could prove too strong to ignore (his Italian heritage allied to the team’s iconic status) with the squad in its strongest position for a decade, potentially creating a match made in heaven. Yet it is far from simple. Ferrari has typically operated on a policy of a number one driver, and some of Raikkonen’s treatment, in terms of strategic preference, has been less than favourable. Ricciardo would have no interest in being Vettel’s sacrificial lamb – and it is by no means simple that his ex-team-mate would welcome a reunion, going out of his way last year to praise Leclerc’s work at Ferrari. It is not known what clauses, or requirements, Vettel may or may not have in his contract. If a reunion were to occur, it would be Ricciardo (with you’d assume a healthier bank balance compared to the bonus-incentivised Red Bull contract) vs Vettel take two, a re-match to answer some of the doubts left by 2014.
Become a Silver Arrow?
There is potentially a third, albeit less likely, option. Mercedes currently has no drivers signed up for 2019, though while Lewis Hamilton’s continuation at the team that has provided him with over 40 wins, multiple titles and an inestimable bank balance is widely expected, the identity of his partner remains an unknown. Mercedes very deliberately renewed Valtteri Bottas’ contract for just one year, keeping its 2019 options open, with the Finn very much in contention to stay. Bottas’ arrival brought a new harmony to a team that had been unsettled by discord in the latter stages of the Hamilton/Nico Rosberg partnership. A healthier atmosphere developed, and Hamilton undoubtedly performed at a higher level without Rosberg, even if he is quick to point out the equal status within Mercedes as opposed to Ferrari’s perceived bias. Unbalancing Hamilton is not something Mercedes wishes to undertake – it knows how important an asset an in-the-mood Hamilton is, and how he can reach levels that define his status as an all-time great. It is also not a certainty that Mercedes would wish to prise Ricciardo from Red Bull if it deems Bottas surplus to requirements. It has Esteban Ocon, highly rated by the manufacturer, gaining experience with Force India, while George Russell is plying his trade in F2, and could emerge as a ready-made replacement for Ocon – there is a logical hierarchy, albeit with no guarantee that it will unfold as expected. But if Mercedes is interested in Ricciardo, and the feeling is reciprocated (for Ricciardo knows he has missed Mercedes' unlikely-to-be-repeated dominant spell), then it remains a distinct possibility.
The decision made by Ricciardo over the next few weeks and months will undoubtedly define the shape of the 2019 battle among the front-runners.
Which team do you think Ricciardo should sign for in 2019? Let us know in the comments section below!
