Elsewhere on the web you will find worthy analyses of what is going on in testing in Barcelona. There are lots of opinions: Ferrari is quick, the Red Bull is quick but, hey, look out for the race pace of the Mercs as it is way faster than the Ferrari. Truth is that no one really knows, even with data because teams can easily sandbag and play games. Later today I’ll do the lap counts to see who has covered the most ground, which is not necessarily much use when it comes to ultimate pace, but it gives a good impression of who has things under control and who is struggling.
In modern Formula 1 you’re in trouble if you don’t have total reliability because development is constant. If you’re fixing problems, you’re not gathering new information. Upgrades are already in the works and industrial infrastructure plays a role because the big teams can produce parts faster than the little fellows, so the small teams are at a competitive disadvantage.
Fans often underestimate the complexity of the sport, but if one considers that the huge number of people employed by each team are there to try every possible design combination and then test it in every way possible, in virtual and real terms, then you begin understand how it is that these machines run like clockwork when they hit the ground. For me this is one of the most astonishing things about the sport in the modern age.
People also forget just how impressive these cars are. These are the fastest F1 cars ever in terms of lap time, despite all the restrictions and not only are the power units kicking out up to 1000 hp, they are also running at gob-smacking levels of thermal efficiency. I was talking to Andy Cowell of Mercedes the other day and he was saying that five years ago they thought it would be cool if the engines could reach 40 percent thermal efficiency. Many very sensible engineers thought it was impossible given that it took the industry more than 120 years to get up to 30-odd percent.
And yet here they are, five years later, getting up to 50 percent thermal efficiency. This is truly impressive stuff and while it is the vogue to blather on about electric cars, it seems very few people are considering where the electricity to run them is going to come from and how polluting that is going to be. Nor for that matter are they looking at the physics of batteries, which are still developing very, very slowly and the pace has not greatly accelerated despite the vast sums of money that have been spent and the vast claims that have been made.
Manufacturing batteries creates huge amounts of emissions, which mean that the electric cars have a “carbon debt” that most can never pay off in their running lifetimes. And the physics, the manufacturing and infrastructure costs mean that it is going to be decades before these engines are truly competitive with hybrids, (if ever) – as much as I would like to see it.
So, for me, F1 has got it right and electric racing could end up as having been a very expensive blind alley. We shall see. Things that happen today seemed impossible five years ago…
In the meantime, Formula 1 remains a massively successful business and usually it’s good sport as well.
So there’s plenty to be cheerful about… if you want to hear more from Cowell, you can sign up for GP+. There’s going to be a story with him in the season preview, coming out next week. Also you can join me at my very first “Audience with Joe” of 2018 in London next week on Friday evening the 16th in Knightsbridge. You can find all the details here and it will be a grand old evening where we can discuss the coming season, everyone welcome…