Fernando Alonso is clever.
We know this. And we know that he’s clever in particular at getting his desired message out into the public discourse.
Reading some of his raw press conference transcripts demonstrates as much. They can look like a copy and paste job, with the same soundbite repeated almost interminably, and almost regardless of what the question was. The intention is clear.
And over the Azerbaijan Grand Prix weekend Alonso again was talk of the town, and again not for what he did on track which was another to be got through in the recalcitrant McLaren Honda and its many grid penalties – albeit in a crazy race he at least ended his and his team’s 2017 points drought. Instead the chat was whither Nando for 2018, when he is a free agent.
It appeared he was on manoeuvres in Baku. Members of his entourage were spotted chatting variously with Mercedes bosses Toto Wolff and Niki Lauda as well as with Renault chief Cyril Abiteboul. And Nando got us even more excited when, amid the maladies mentioned, he said with a glint of his weekend, “so far it has been quite positive. In many ways. It has been very positive for me.”
Alonso indeed had a lot to say on his future during his Azerbaijan stop-off.
“Whatever decision I take later in the year, will be to win next year,” he told Will Buxton on NBC’s Paddock Pass programme.
Whatever decision I take later in the year, will be to win next year. I will not make a decision based on any hopes anymore. I will make a very safe decision – Fernando Alonso
“I’m in a position now in my career that probably I will not make a decision based on hopes, what is going to happen next year, [that] there are big hopes this will improve, or there are big hopes as they are investing and the first results in the wind tunnel look promising.
“I will not make a decision based on any hopes anymore. I will make a very safe decision.”
But… in this F1 ‘safe’ means Mercedes or Ferrari – or at a stretch Red Bull – and those routes appear blocked to him.
So will he go to IndyCar full time, given his fine recent Indy 500 debut? Apparently not. “At the moment my priority is Formula One and my obsession is Formula One,” he insisted. “To win the third world championship, my decision will be based on this idea.
“Before saying goodbye to Formula One I will not say bye-bye in Q1, I will say bye-bye winning.”
So, what then? McLaren with a Mercedes power unit?
“Not really, it will not change much,” he told Sky when that prospect was raised. “I want to win next year, I don’t want to gamble too much in any decision.”
There are even more movements than probably we all know. Some teams we think are set for next year – I don’t think that this is so clear that they are 100% confirmed. I think there will be a lot of changes for next year – Fernando Alonso
He then said something that stuck with me, something that seemed to complete the frame of his logic. And equally seemed curiously non-reported.
“There are even more movements than probably we all know,” Alonso went on. “Some teams we think are set for next year – I don’t think that this is so clear that they are 100% confirmed. I think there will be a lot of changes for next year.”
It may be wishful thinking on Nando’s part. Or him stirring the pot. But what if he knows something we don’t, that there will be more driver market movement – including at the top teams – than we right now anticipate and a move to one of those ‘safe’ squads is indeed on? After all, you’d imagine he and his people are close to the grapevine.
But again, what? First off we can rule out a Red Bull switch with reasonable confidence. Christian Horner has stated repeatedly that he’s not interested (he reiterated the point in Baku in case any of us weren’t yet clear). Recall too how he gleefully announced Daniil Kvyat’s Red Bull promotion pronto in late 2014 so to pull the rug from under Nando’s feet.
In any case Horner’s already got a three into two doesn’t go situation with Carlos Sainz pacing impatiently at Toro Rosso.
Then we have Mercedes, the ultimate ‘safe’ move as Alonso would have it. Wolff has been known to dangle Alonso’s name in public as a possible target, though exclusively when Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg had fallen out, or one or both were negotiating a contract. So it’s appeared motivated by bringing incumbent drivers into line rather than genuine interest.
When pouring cold water on an Alonso move Wolff referred to “the history of Mercedes”. At this my ears pricked up – as it perhaps indicates that Spygate dies hard
There’s also that Fernando and Lewis is the most likely line up given Lewis has a contract for 2018 and Valtteri Bottas doesn’t, and this falls foul of the classic ‘two roosters the same henhouse’ consideration. We have also a direct previous demonstration of it which didn’t end well (though the pair are much more matey these days). Over the Baku weekend Wolff suggested that putting them together again would be “masochistic”. So at the very least Alonso coming in would rely on Lewis clearing out for whatever reason.
Could Lewis do roughly what Nico did at the end of last season, and walk? It’s not implausible, particularly given Lewis’s other interests (and no one saw Nico’s retirement coming). But then again Lewis spoke last weekend of racing until he’s 40.
Also when pouring cold water on an Alonso move Wolff referred to “the history of Mercedes”. At this my ears pricked up – as it perhaps indicates that Spygate dies hard. Merc footed the $100m bill for that one. It’s been murmured before that the German organisation refuses to countenance Alonso on that basis.
Another thing murmured before is that Wolff prefers passive drivers such as Hamilton, Rosberg and Bottas rather than one such as Alonso who wants to be active in the team’s running.
The path would not be as difficult as some might imagine for Alonso to go back to Ferrari; the management has changed since he departed in 2014 and he is still highly esteemed by engineers at Ferrari, who know what their car would be doing this year with him driving it – James Allen
Which leaves Ferrari. Now you may be guffawing even harder at that prospect than at the previous two, given Alonso left the Scuderia just two-and-a-bit years ago, apparently amid acrimony. Furthermore there is a similar two roosters problem as at Mercedes with the most likely line-up there – Alonso with Sebastian Vettel.
But consider what James Allen wrote a few weeks back on next year’s driver market. “The picture for 2018 is quite interesting as some of the sport’s biggest names need to do new deals,” said Allen. “Vettel is in the third year at Ferrari and there is some stirring going on in the German and Italian media around him having some kind of ‘pre-contract’ with Mercedes.
“While pre-agreements are something Vettel has done in the past, they aren’t binding and my sources in Italy suggest that he has decided to stay at Ferrari.
“Time will tell; Vettel had a tough moment with the Ferrari team management in October last year, but is winning races now. He brushed away the suggestions that he has a pre-agreement with Mercedes. He also said that he would not be afraid of Alonso coming back to Ferrari to partner him, but added that the team was working well as it is.
“The path would not be as difficult as some might imagine for Alonso to go back to Ferrari; the management has changed since he departed in 2014 and he is still highly esteemed by engineers at Ferrari, who know what their car would be doing this year with him driving it.”
Do you know what? I think Seb will do everything early in life. He’s got his championship titles and his results early, he’s going to have a kid early and I think he’ll retire early – he’ll probably take a blast in the red car, then sayonara – Mark Webber
Might there be another way back too? This is strictly speculative, but I give you Seb’s long-time team mate Mark Webber in early 2015, just as Seb first rocked up in Maranello.
“Do you know what?,” Webber said then, “I think Seb will do everything early in life.
“He’s got his championship titles and his results early, he’s going to have a kid early and I think he’ll retire early – he’ll probably take a blast in the red car, then sayonara.”
And what better way of saying sayonara than just after winning a title at the Scuderia, ending its decade-long drivers’ championship drought and doing what Nando couldn’t? Also cementing his status as an F1 great by winning titles with two teams?
And if some or all of this seems fanciful then remember that in F1 we should never rule anything out. Time was that Alonso getting back together with Ron Dennis was considered much more laughable than anything written here. Time was we were similarly scornful of persistent Seb to Ferrari rumbles. Of Kimi hooking up again with his old nemesis Luca Montezemolo at Maranello. Of the rumour that Lewis would leave McLaren for Merc. Nico’s retirement we’ve mentioned.
This one may well have a way to go.
